Atlanta loses Jurickson Profar and Reynaldo López

The Atlanta Braves are down two significant contributors, for wildly different reasons

Boy if you thought the Braves were in a bad place on Sunday night, Sunday had a real “out of the frying pan and into the fire” feeling to it.

Over the span of the day, the team DFA’d veteran reliever Héctor Neris, saw free agent outfielder Jurickson Profar suspended for 80 games for a violation of the league’s PED policy, and then placed starter Reynaldo López on the injured list with shoulder inflammation.

Let’s break down each transaction in chronological order and figure out what Atlanta does now.

Neris didn’t have it

Going into Monday’s game, there were two different tiers of performance for Atlanta’s pitching staff. See if you can spot what’s different between these two groups:

Hector Neris’s ERA: 45.00 (five earned runs in one inning pitched over two outings)
Everyone else’s ERA: 3.48 (12 earned runs over thirty-one innings pitched)

Atlanta’s moving on. As Neris was on a prorated major league deal, they owed him just four days of his $2M salary for the 2025 season.¹

But I’m not entirely thrilled about the replacement in this scenario - veteran Jesse Chavez. The Braves added “Uncle Jesse” almost immediately after he was released by the Texas Rangers late in spring training. He made one appearance for Atlanta at the very end of camp, but the results weren’t great for either team: 8.2 IP, nine runs (eight earned) on 13 hits with six walks opposite seven strikeouts.

When the Braves broke camp, Chavez was sent to Gwinnett but was the first to get the call for the majors. I don’t love it - there’s very little evidence to show that Chavez still has it at this point in his career, but it’s possible that there’s other considerations being made here.

With Craig Kimbrel being expected to be added to the roster in the coming weeks once he’s finished with extended spring, adding someone like Buck Farmer or Dylan Covey just increases the chances of the team needing to either lose that guy to a DFA or to option down one of Daysbel Hérnandez or Dylan Lee.²

Hopefully I’m wrong and he’s back to early 2024 form, where he threatened to make the All-Star Game after a 1.32 ERA across his first 34 innings of the season.

UPDATE: After this newsletter was submitted for publication, Chavez pitched two innings against the Dodgers with one run given up. He allowed two hits, one of which was a solo homer to Kiké Hernandez, and walked two with one strikeout.

Profar got popped

Jurickson Profar, meanwhile, got popped for violating the league’s policy on PEDs and is out for 80 games. Suspended for taking chorionic gonadotropin, he’s not eligible to return until June 28th against the Philadelphia Phillies and will lose $5.8M of his $12M salary for 2025.

(We went live on YouTube soon after the suspension was announced to break down all the details - you can watch the full replay HERE)

Oh, and he’s also ineligible for the postseason, should the Braves reach. And that’s what I want to talk about.

Profar’s undoubtedly a valuable member of the lineup - were he to be effective after returning, he adds some on-base value to a lineup that’s not been great in that regard.

But he’s also not eligible to be included on the postseason roster, and so there’s an argument to make that Atlanta shouldn’t play him after clinching a postseason berth.³

Think about it: After you’re guaranteed to be in the postseason, the value for playing Profar is down to just improving your seeding. That’s it. It doesn’t matter if he’s ready for the postseason, because he isn’t eligible for the roster. Why not play Jarred Kelenic or Bryan De La Cruz or Alex Verdugo or whoever else will be starting in left field when October get here?

Will Brian Sntiker and the Braves actually do that? I doubt it. But it’s the right way to approach September, should the Braves qualify for October.

Replacing Reynaldo López

López, a first-time All-Star in 2024, is set for an MRI to determine if there’s any structural damage to his sore shoulder.

At least we’re able to replace the one-time All-Star López with a one-time All-Star in Bryce Elder.

Elder, who made the 2023 Midsummer Classic but faded hard in the second half of that season, is being called up after making his first start of the year in Gwinnett for the Stripers. We broke down the results and the pitch changes for Elder last Saturday - hopefully Rick Kranitz and the major league staff are able to help Elder harness his new stuff.

But I’m officially thinking⁴ about the starting pitching depth now.

You went into spring training with seven viable options, but Ian Anderson was traded to the Angels after a walk-filled Grapefruit League slate and now López is down with injury.

If you need another spot starter for a doubleheader, who is the choice? In Gwinnett, you have offseason add Davis Daniel, prospect Hurston Waldrep, and I guess Chasen Shreve - the 16-year pro made just the second start of his career on Sunday against Charlotte. (He went four innings with two runs allowed on four hits, walking none while striking out six.)

Considering that Atlanta used between ten and thirteen conventional starters every season of the last four, it’s an interesting question to consider. While Spencer Strider will come back sometime in the next few weeks - he makes his next rehab start this Friday at home for Gwinnett - it’s still not enough depth for the full season.

1. $42,780.75 - remember, there are 162 games but it’s a 187-day season.

2. Yes, that essentially means that Chavez is being called up for roster flexibility reasons and not because he’s the best option. I don’t like it either.

3. I’ve been saying all spring that they’re virtually a lock for the postseason, but there’s the tiniest bit of doubt beginning to creep in.

4. Not ‘concerned’ quite yet, but I’m aware of the possible problem