Saturday seeds: Spencer Strider rehab, home run robberies, and Bryce Elder
Here's some of the relevant news from this week for the Atlanta Braves
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We’ve got a lot to get to, so let’s jump right into it. This is your weekly news recap!
Strider continues his comeback
Working to come back from elbow surgery last spring, Spencer Strider was able to take the mound twice in spring training. Across two starts, Strider pitched four innings, allowing three runs (two earned) one two hits and a walk. He allowed one homer, coming off the bat of Baltimore Ramón Urías, but also struck out ten. Spencer threw 27 pitches in the first outing and 45 in his second, so the buildup is going well.
He’s taking the next step with a rehab outing, making today’s start for Gwinnett against the Charlotte Knights, an affiliate of the Chicago White Sox.
It’s only Strider’s second official outing for Gwinnett - he debuted for the team in late 2021, getting one relief inning before being called up to Atlanta for two relief stints before the regular season ended.
Based on the 45 pitches in his last outing, I’d estimate this is the first of probably three rehab starts before he returns to the Atlanta rotation. Assuming they’re on regular rest, you’re looking at Thursday, April 3rd (at home versus Nashville (Brewers affiliate) and Tuesday the 8th on the road versus Norfolk (Orioles affiliate). One extra day of rest puts Strider on the 4th and 10th, setting him up to return early during Atlanta’s six-game homestand against the Twins and Cardinals on the 18th through 23rd.
Multiple Braves were robbed in San Diego
Atlanta hit two homers on Opening Day, but it very much could have been four. In the fourth inning, Ozzie Albies sent one down the left field line that was caught at the wall by Brandon Lockridge. With runners on the corners and Atlanta up by one, it would have pushed the lead to 7-3.
Just two batters later, Drake Baldwin hit a ball to dead center, coming off the bat at 103.7…but Jackson Merrill went up and got it at the very top of the wall for a flyout. It went 395 and had an expected batting average of .810, but Merrill brought it back.
Drake Baldwin continues to have terrible luck, including a comebacker off the pitcher on Friday night that ricocheted all the way to first baseman Luis Arraez for the out. Of his five balls put in play across two games, the softest one has been 96.4. He’s also added 99.1, 101.6, 103.7, and 109.6…but he’s still looking for his first career hit.
But in honor of Baldwin almost getting a homer for his first career hit on Opening Day: It’s trivia time! Only two players in Braves franchise history have made their MLB debut on Opening Day and hit a homer. Can you name them? Answer in the footnote.1
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Elder’s added velocity, but needs to fix the sinker
Bryce Elder started Gwinnett’s season opener on Friday night against Charlotte and it…had both bad and good in it.
The good: Elder struck out seven in just 2.2 innings.
The bad: Elder went just 2.2 innings because he allowed three hits (including a homer) and walked four, throwing 71 pitches but just 41 for strikes.
I’m not sure what to think here.
On the one hand, he hit 94 on the four-seam fastball and picked up an 38% CSW for the game. The four-seamer averaged 92.7 with 16 inches of IVB, including a few that hit 18 or 19 inches. That’ll play.
On the other hand, his sinker was put into play exactly twice…once was a 102.7 mph lineout to center and the other was a 102.1 mph tank shot from shortstop Colson Montgomery. Both pitches were left up in the zone.
Against righties, he was exclusively sinker/slider in this one and all four of the hits he allowed came off of that pair of pitches. Against lefties, he added the 4S/changeup/cutter trio to the sinker/slider pairing.
Additionally, all of the damage allowed by Elder came off of four players: Chase Meidroth, Colson Montgomery, Edgar Quero, and Kyle Teel. The quartet, all rated prospects for the White Sox, combined to go 3/5 with 3 RBI, 3 walks, and 2 strikeouts.
Everyone else combined to go 0/6 with one walk and five strikeouts.
I bring all of this up because when you look at the starter depth chart, Elder’s 6th right now and will bump to 7th once Strider is back. As much as many Braves fans want to launch this guy into the sun (or to the LA Angels, like happened to Ian Anderson), he’s likely making double-digit starts in Atlanta this year. It’s in our best interest to know about these problems now and figure out how to fix them before we’re forced to call him up for some starts.2
Jordan Schafer versus the Phillies on April 5th, 2009, and Chuck Tanner for the Milwaukee Braves on April 12th, 1955 against the Reds. Tanner’s was on the very first pitch he saw, too!
In each of the last four seasons, the Braves have used between ten and thirteen conventional starters. The odds are that Elder gets plenty of run in Atlanta.