What Atlanta Needs to Do to Upset the Padres in the NL Wild Card

The Atlanta Braves barely made it into the postseason, but now that they're in, they have a shot to make a run

The Atlanta Braves are in the postseason.

It wasn’t a sure thing.

They not only dealt with virtually unprecedented injuries this season, with five different hitters from their Opening Day lineup and their starting pitcher all missing at least two months, but also a final day bullpen meltdown in game one of the doubleheader. They then had to scramble after probable Cy Young winner Chris Sale was scratched due to back spasms, starting reliever Grant Holmes in game 162 just a day after he threw 1.2 innings against the Kansas City Royals.

But as manager Brian Snitker said in the clubhouse shortly before the champagne bottles began popping postgame: “I don’t care how in the hell we get in - we’re in now, fellas, and anything can happen.”

© Brett Davis-Imagn Images

So, what’s going to happen this week in San Diego against the team with the best record in baseball after the All-Star Break (43-20)?

How the Braves performed versus the Padres so far in 2024

Atlanta played two different series against San Diego this season, going 3-4 and being outscored by four runs.

The two teams met in Truist Park in mid-May, but weather forced a doubleheader on Monday (boy, that sounds familiar). The Padres won the first three games of the series before Atlanta won the finale to avoid a sweep, and some of these games weren’t particularly close - game two was a 9-1 Friars victory after San Diego put up seven runs in the first four innings. The Padres outscored the Braves by eight runs across the set, hanging losses on Max Fried, Bryce Elder, and Joe Jiménez in the three wins.

The second series in mid-July was a lot closer, with Atlanta winning two out of three behind some exceptional pitching. The Braves got wins from Spencer Schwellenbach (6-1 in the opener) and Chris Sale (6-3 in the finale) and finished with a +4 run differential.

All told, the Braves hit .244 with a .690 OPS and eight homers against the Padres across the seven games.

But these are different teams now.

Injuries have been a bigger deal for the Braves than the Padres, but both teams are different squads now than when they faced off over the summer. San Diego will be without Ha-Seong Kim at shortstop, while the Braves won’t have Austin Riley at third base. (The Braves didn’t have Riley for the first series, either, with Zack Short playing third as Riley nursed an intercostal strain.) Atlanta will also have Michael Harris II back, who missed the second series with his hamstring strain, in addition to replacing Eddie Rosario and Adam Duvall in the outfield corners with Ramón Laureano and Jorge Soler.

It’s very clearly and obviously an upgrade for the Braves. I’d argue that from a talent perspective, Atlanta position player group is in a better place now than they were in either of the previous two matchups - while Riley isn’t back (and won’t return for the postseason), the team’s otherwise as healthy as they’ve been in months.

What to expect in this playoff series from each offense

San Diego matches up well with the Braves. Missing only Ha-Seong Kim from their preferred starting nine, who gives pretty good defense at short but isn’t as dynamic of a hitter as you’d hope, the Padres have great athletes and power threats at multiple positions as well as speed to burn.

The main difference, though?

San Diego’s better at putting the ball in play.

Helmed by three-time batting title winner Luis Arraez, San Diego leads all of baseball in batting average at .263. They also strike out less than any team in MLB, averaging just over six and a half strikeouts per game and a 17.7% strikeout rate as a squad.

It’s stressful on a defense.

(Thankfully, Atlanta’s is one of the better in baseball in its current configuration¹, with Gio Urshela having stepped up admirably in Austin Riley’s place at third base and Orlando Arcia not allowing his offensive troubles to impact his glove.)

By comparison of the offenses, the Braves’ team batting average is just .243, exactly in line with MLB’s average for 2024.

But even that’s a bit misleading - due to the injuries, Atlanta’s cycled through a lot of replacement-level players this season. Several of them are either no longer on the team (Eddie Rosario) or their roles have been significantly minimized (Adam Duvall, Jarred Kelenic) as they’ve been replaced by trade acquisitions and waiver claims.

In the month of September, the Braves are batting .250 and their OPS has risen to .742, while they’re top five in homers with 34 on the month.

I’m saying that the offensive edge for San Diego isn’t as drastic as everyone’s making it out to be.

What to expect from each pitching staff

Here is where Atlanta’s tumultuous road to the postseason has hurt them - the Braves were forced to used Spencer Schwellenbach in Monday’s game one and then Chris Sale (back spasms) was scratched, with post-game reporting that the tall lefty might be staying back in Atlanta to face live hitters while the team is in San Diego.

The Padres, meanwhile, were able to mostly set up their rotation.

Game one is Michael King, followed by Joe Musgrove and (if needed) Dylan Cease for game three.

King has faced Atlanta once in his career, getting 3.2 inning of relief work against the Braves last season with one hit and one walk allowed, striking out three.

Atlanta will have Max Fried for game two and Reynaldo López for game three (if needed), but game one is likely going to be coming from Triple-A out of the group of Ian Anderson, AJ Smith-Shawver, and Bryce Elder².

It honestly feels like a combination of Smith-Shawver and Anderson is the move here - Anderson, while not having appeared in the majors since 2022, is still one of the most accomplished postseason pitchers in the organization³ while Smith-Shawver is a phenomenal athlete that’s significantly grown in Triple-A this season (and in several ways that don’t reflect in the box score…but that’s a different article.)

Truthfully, I don’t think the pitching matchups are that lopsided, with the exception of game one.

So, who wins?

I’ll acknowledge that I’ve written over 1,000 words and not really said a lot definitively about this matchup, and that’s because there’s so many unknowns here.

How will a Gwinnett starter fare when thrown into a playoff game?

What about Atlanta’s offense - is it the one that batted .322 with twenty homers in a seven-game span against Cincinnati, Miami, and the Mets series opener last week, or the one that batted under .200 and went just 5-38 with RISP and stranded 38 runners in five games against the Royals and Mets to close the regular season?

Can Atlanta’s bullpen recover from heavy usage this weekend and Monday to come through when San Diego sends Fernando Tatis Jr. Xander Bogaerts, and Manny Machado to the plate in a one-run game late?

Ignoring all the unknowns, I think the big takeaway from this season, all 162 games, has been this:

Atlanta’s somehow been able to get it done - bruised, limping, and starting DFA’d castoffs from the Tigers, Guardians and Phillies, they’ve made the postseason for the seventh consecutive season. The Opening Day lineup got a grand total of seven innings together. They lost the reigning MVP (Acuña) and MLB’s strikeout king (Spencer Strider), among others. There’s not another team that’s dealt with this level of injury and still made it to October.

I refuse to think that doesn’t matter, that this team hasn’t learned something from this season’s struggles, from needing to find ways to get it done. They’ve overcome adversity all season.

And yet they’re still here. They’re still standing. And I’m not counting them out.

John Smoltz once told me that all you need to win in the postseason is three hot hitters, three hot starters, and three hot relievers. Look at this roster: It’s easy to make the case for three guys from each group.

And because of that, I’m not picking against the Braves.

1. Jorge Soler in right field is probably the biggest concern, sitting at -7 OAA, but the Braves do their best to get him out of the game after his third at-bat and allow Eli White to cover for the final few innings.

2. Elder pitched that 9-1 loss on May 19th, allowing seven runs (six earned) on nine hits and three walks in just three innings, getting lifted after not being able to record an out in the fourth inning.

3. Anderson is 4-0 with a 1.26 ERA in the postseason, having struck out 40 in his 35.2 October innings. Across six postseason starts, he’s only given up runs in two of them. He memorably started game three of the 2021 World Series, giving the Braves five scoreless, hitless innings in the rain in an eventual 2-0 Braves win, a game I was fortunate enough to attend as a fan.