There's not a magic fix for the Atlanta Braves offense
The only satisfying answer for most fans is for them to 'be better'
(My apologies for the brevity of today’s newsletter. My writer’s block today was worse than Atlanta’s hitting with RISP. We’ll be back to normal tomorrow.)
The Atlanta Braves are not just having a rough start to the season. This is an absolute nightmare.
The Braves are the league’s only winless team. Only one team, the Colorado Rockies, has just a single win on the season (and they’ve played just five total games), with everyone else at two wins or more. Atlanta’s tied with Colorado and the Houston Astros for least runs per game at two (although Houston’s about to fall off this list - they just put up five on the Minnesota Twins through seven innings as I’m writing this.)
Atlanta’s batting average of .151 is twenty-one points lower than the next-lowest team, the Seattle Mariners. Their OPS of .485 is seven points below Houston’s for the worst in the league (and again, Houston’s going to rise after this game - they’ve already hit two homers).
You get the idea.
In fact, it’s much quicker to name the areas where Atlanta isn’t among the worst in the league.
Pitches seen per plate appearance: 1st at 4.18
2-0 counts seen: 2nd at 19.5%
Walk rate: 3rd at 11.7%
You can see the new approach manifesting in those numbers - don’t be so aggressive at the plate and wait for your pitch versus any vaguely hittable pitch.
And it’s working for some guys; take Matt Olson. His triple slash of .182/.379/.318 isn’t impressive, but both the inputs and the year-to-year differences are amazing.
He’s being more patient (a 13.3% reduction in first-pitch swings), more selective (-8.2% swing rate), and chasing less (-6.2% out-of-zone swing rate). While not sustainable, his walk rate is more than double his 2024 number of 10.4%. He’s also getting better contact despite less overall swings, with a hard-hit rate of 64.7% (+17.3% from last year) and a barrel rate of 29.4% (+17%).
Obviously, those are small sample sizes and it will normalize, but the new approach is definitely resonating with him so far in the young season. Austin Riley’s a similar story to Olson - less chase and first pitch swings, more selectivity and barrels.
Even where the new approach hasn’t fully stuck yet, you can see signs of improvements in the at-bats. Marcell Ozuna’s swinging way less, but he also has yet to catch a single barrel this season. Some of that is because he isn’t getting pitches to hit, though - he’s holding a 44.8% walk rate1 and leads all of baseball in walks by five, sitting on 13 for the season.
But for every Matt Olson or Austin Riley, there are two or three guys like Michael Harris. Money Mike is pressing - he’s swinging more out of the zone than ever before, currently sitting at a career-high 46.5% Out-of-zone swing rate. His whiff rate, in a very obvious parallel, is up and he has yet to draw a walk on the season.
But here’s the bottom line:2
They have to play better.
Austin Riley acknowledged as much on Wednesday after the loss. “From a personal standpoint, it’s honestly embarrassing what I’ve displayed offensively,” Riley told the media after the game. “I’ve got a lot of work to do. It’s embarrassing.”
That’s all there is to it. There’s no magical fix here - sure, the luck’s been terrible and even a minimal amount of regression will help fix some of that. The Braves are hitting .379 on hard-hit balls and have a league-worst .199 BABIP - but they have to be better.
Sitting at 6-49 with runners in scoring position isn’t entirely bad luck. Putting up a NOBLETIGER in the 6th inning on Wednesday with your three best hitters up isn’t entirely bad luck.
If Atlanta wants to be the first team in MLB history to make the playoffs after starting 0-7, they’ve got to play better.
It’s as simple as that.
Yes, that would be an MLB record.
Because Stone Cold said so.
Coming home and playing the Marlins, rather than the lossless Padres and Dodgers is going to help them get loose and play their game. This hitting strategy will pan out in the long run, but in the short term vs those two teams, notsomuch.
On the West coast, all of the hitters looked like they were on their first day on the job. Tight.
The RISP issues look like they signed a multiyear deal, same ghosts, new season. Watching the bench mob play some 90s style small ball on Wednesday actually gave me a spark of hope… which didn’t last of course.
I’ve read a few publications on the Braves woes this year. I think we all understand the problem, but problems need solutions not more problems. So I’m genuinely asking, what’s a solution? I’m sure there is more than one, but no one is coming to save them. Acuna isn’t going to get them over the hump, neither is Strider. It’s a team sport, so focusing on one or two players is not a solution.
I’m not suggesting firing, hiring, or burning jerseys but what do the baseball gods need as a sacrifice? Snit Bear?