The Braves' 40-Man Roster: An Opportunity to Build Depth

The Atlanta Braves spent most of last offseason with open 40-man roster spots

The Atlanta Braves have more than 40 players on their 40-man roster - it’s 46, to be exact, as there’s six players on the 60-day injured list and they don’t count towards the total count.

At least, not yet.

Those players will all need to be activated after the postseason officially ends, and being put back on the 60-day IL (and freeing up a 40-man roster spot) doesn’t become an option again until pitchers and catchers report to spring training.¹

There’s going to be some natural attrition to the current count of 46, as players will reach free agency (Max Fried, Charlie Morton, A.J. Minter) and the team will decline to tender contracts to certain members of the roster (I don’t expect Cavan Biggio to be back at the MLB Trade Rumors-projected $4.3M arbitration figure).

Let’s look at the expected roster movement, project out some decisions, and figure out where the Braves might be able to use their unique roster construction to add talent at a time where everyone else is dealing with a full roster.

Atlanta’s unique advantage

Because the Braves have so many long-term deals on the major league roster, they’re one of the few teams that usually carries open spots during the offseason on their 40-man roster.

Entering February last year, only two teams had open spots on their 40-man: the Braves and the San Diego Padres. As a full 40-man means that every roster addition requires a corresponding move, the acquisition cost for the Braves to get a player is solely financial (and the roster spot, obviously) - they don’t have to contemplate whether or not they can get a guy through waivers after he’s DFA’d to keep him in the organization.

As an example, Atlanta signed Adam Duvall in mid-March, just a week before Spring Training wrapped, and didn’t need to make a corresponding move to add him - they had 40-man spots available. The cost was a roster spot and $3M, whereas any other team that wanted to add him had to also decide who to remove from their roster in return.

Position players on the 40-man roster

The Braves currently have 20 position players on their 40-man. Let’s break them down by position.

Absolute locks:
DH Marcell Ozuna
1B Matt Olson
2B Ozzie Albies
SS Orlando Arcia ²
3B Austin Riley
CF Michael Harris II
OF Ronald Acuña Jr.
OF Jorge Soler
OF Jarred Kelenic
C Sean Murphy
C Travis d’Arnaud
INF Nacho Alvarez Jr.

Most of these are obvious, as these guys are signed to long-term deals. Arcia’s starting job is not safe, but at only $2M for more than adequate defense, his roster spot is unless someone demands him in a trade (and they won’t). As for Alvarez, he’ll compete for a job in spring but is likely to return to Gwinnett for more development - he’s just not ready to be a MLB starter on a playoff team quite yet.

RUNNING COUNT: 12

Likely safe:
UTIL Luke Williams
OF Eli White
C Chadwick Tromp

Both White and Williams offer speed and defense - I’d say that Williams might be safer than White, simply because this team could have a glut of outfielders and there’s J.P. Martinez in Gwinnett to compete with White, but as of now there’s not better options than them on the roster. Tromp’s a competent third catcher, although I do expect prospect Drake Baldwin to jump him in the pecking order with a strong spring training.

RUNNING COUNT: 15

Roster decisions to be made:
OF Ramón Laureano
OF Adam Duvall
INF Gio Urshela
INF Whit Merrifield
INF Cavan Biggio

Duvall (free agent) and Biggio (arbitration - $4.3M projection) are gone, in my opinion. Duvall never got going this season, while Biggio’s arbitration projection is more than the Braves are going to want to pay. There’s a chance that they agree to a minor league deal with him late in the winter to return as depth, but that’s only if no other team gives him a major league shot and that feels more likely. He’s a non-tender candidate.

Urshela, Merrifield and Laureano are the big decisions here. Urshela and Merrifield are outright free agents, while Laureano has a final year of arbitration (at a projected $6.1M salary). I will go on a limb and say that Merrifield gets a starting spot somewhere, while Urshela returns on a small deal. I’ve already staked my position on the podcast that Laureano should be back next year, bumping Kelenic to Gwinnett to start the season if needed, simply because injuries are going to happen and you can’t count on catching lightning in a bottle for a fourth time with your midseason DFA acquisitions.

Let’s assume two of the three question marks return.

RUNNING COUNT: 18

You’ve made only two spots here, but there are more moves to be made on the pitching front.

Pitchers on the 40-man roster

Owing to the injuries, Atlanta has 26 spots currently taken up by pitchers and you need to clear at least four. I think it’ll be more than that.

Locks:
SP Chris Sale
SP Spencer Strider
SP Spencer Schwellenbach
SP Reynaldo López
SP/RP Grant Holmes ³
RP Raisel Iglesias
RP Joe Jiménez
RP Pierce Johnson
RP Aaron Bummer
RP Dylan Lee
RP Daysbel Hernández
SP Ian Anderson
SP AJ Smith-Shawver
SP Hurston Waldrep
SP Bryce Elder

RUNNING COUNT: 33

That’s nine potential starters right there, although I expect probably a veteran add at some point this offseason to make it ten.⁴

Question marks:
SP Max Fried (free agency)
SP Charlie Morton (free agency/retirement)
RP A.J. Minter (free agency)
RP Jesse Chavez (free agency/retirement)
RP Luke Jackson (free agency)
RP John Brebbia
SP Dylan Dodd
SP/RP Ray Kerr (Tommy John)
RP Angel Perdomo (Tommy John)
SP Allan Winans
SP Huascar Ynoa

As Anakin Skywalker said, “this is where the fun begins.”

Several of these faces aren’t going to be back. Luke Jackson’s a $7M salary versus a $2M buyout for 2025 - he might be back on a minor league deal or a non-guaranteed deal, but it likely won’t be on that $7M figure. Dylan Dodd was working as a reliever in Gwinnett in the month of August and never got an MLB appearance despite the team needing thirteen different starters this season - he’s likely going to lose his 40-man spot this offseason, as he’s buried deep in the pecking order. Allan Winans is in a similar boat; after a few promising appearances last year, he got absolutely SHELLED at the major league level this season (0-2, 15.26 ERA) and likely doesn’t have a role at the MLB level going forward. (Darius Vines was DFA’d midseason and moved to Mississippi, and that’s the likely result for Winans as well if he stays with the organization.)

If it’s me, I’m keeping Brebbia, as well as Kerr and Perdomo - Kerr is out for all of 2025, but Perdomo should be able to return at some point next year.

The real question, outside of the free agents, comes down to Huascar Ynoa. Attempting to come back from Tommy John surgery this year, the righthander was shut down multiple times with different issues - elbow inflammation, a shoulder injury, etc - and his roster status is complicated by the fact that he’s both arbitration-eligible ($825k projection) and out of options, meaning the team can’t send him back down midseason without potentially losing him to free agency.⁵ I’d expect the team to, at best, sign him to a minor league deal if he returns at all.

RUNNING COUNT: 36

With the expectation that the trio of Fried, Morton, and Chavez are all not back next year, that leaves you with some open 40-man spots.

And that means flexibility - maybe you bring Minter back on a deal and give him time to continue rehabbing the hip. His body of work is worth a longer-term deal in free agency, but his recent health status clouds that and maybe he returns for one season to build a better platform year before free agency.

But I think the biggest thing here is that now you can take a few shots on injured/TJ guys and stash them, knowing that you have the roster space when other teams might not. Is that a multi-year deal for Shane Bieber, with a reduced salary for 2025 while he rehabs from Tommy John surgery? What about a Lucas Giolito, if he opts out of his deal with the Boston Red Sox, or Athletics free agent Trevor Gott?

Or with the open 40-man space, perhaps there’s another reliever to starter conversion in the works, like free agent Shintaro Fujinami.

No matter how you slice it, having a smaller free agent class and a long-term roster means that Braves have a competitive advantage in the marketplace. The question, how does GM Alex Anthopoulos USE it this offseason?

1. The 60-day IL, or some version of it that excludes a guy from the 40-man roster, doesn’t extend through the offseason as a deliberate mechanism to prevent teams from just stashing every injured and/or TJ arm they can find indefinitely. Teams with more cash could just pay to tender contracts to injured players and stash them indefinitely, with the only accounting of them being financial and their spot on the domestic reserve list (which is larger in the offseason).

Also, here’s a fun fact for you: even if you go on the 60-day IL in February when pitchers and catchers report, the actual counting of that 60 days doesn’t start until the regular season.

2. They might acquire competition for him, but at $2M for decent defense, his roster spot is absolutely safe

3. The Braves are planning on stretching Holmes out over the offseason as a starter, a plan I’m fully on board with. Expect a deep dive on that soon

4. Going back through 2021, the Braves have used between 10 and 13 conventional starters every season. Starting the offseason with ten potential starters isn’t a bad place to be, obviously, but I’m still assuming they’ll get one via free agency and at least one from the farm system.

And if I’m making picks on the veteran and the prospect as of now, give me Nick Pivetta and Drue Hackenberg.

5. Not that they’re equivalent players, but Michael Soroka was in a similar roster situation entering his final year of team control and was included in the 5-for-1 deal that got Atlanta Aaron Bummer from the Chicago White Sox