The Atlanta Braves Have Tough Decisions to Make This Offseason
The Atlanta Braves have three main areas of focus when it comes to improving their roster for 2025
As I said on this morning’s Braves Today podcast, I’m bummed that the season is over, but it wasn’t a disappointment.
Because let’s face it - that team wasn’t supposed to be there. The Braves, per OptaStats, were the first team in MLB history to make the postseason after losing three Opening Day starters for the final 35+ games plus the postseason, which is a wild stat…and I’d argue that’s underselling Atlanta’s injury issues: The Braves had only four players get into more than 110 games, while the Opening Day lineup got a grand total of six innings together1 ALL SEASON.
So health is a big part of a bounceback 2025, but there are still plenty of roster construction issues to be addressed over the winter. Here are three areas where we think the Braves need to spend some time:
You can never have enough starting pitching
If there’s anything we’ve learned from the last three postseasons, it’s that you’ll have some health impacts in your rotation by the time October rolls around.
2022: Spencer Strider is coming off an oblique injury and Max Fried lost over 15 pounds due to a virus in the week prior to the postseason.
2023: Max Fried makes only one start in the final few weeks of the season and comes off of the IL (blister) for his start in the NLDS, while Charlie Morton’s unavailable due to a sprained finger on his throwing hand.
2024: Chris Sale misses the Wild Card round with back spasms, while Fried is compromised in the final game due to taking a comebacker off of the derriere.
The lesson here is that you can never have enough starting pitching. The Braves went into 2024’s final month with five starters they trusted in Sale, Fried, Morton, Reynaldo López, and Spencer Schwellenbach, but were still forced to go to Gwinnett to find game one’s starter in AJ Smith-Shawver after Monday’s doubleheader and Sale’s injury decimated their options.
And with both Max Fried and Charlie Morton hitting free agency, it’s hard to predict out past the first four in the rotation of Sale, López, Schwellenbach, and the returning Spencer Strider.2
Sure there’s plenty of fifth-starter options in Gwinnett - Bryce Elder, Ian Anderson, AJ Smith-Shawver, and maybe even Drue Hackenberg - but if we learned anything from this season, it’s that those spot/6th starters are both going to be used often and that Atlanta needs both more and higher quality options from that group.
SIDEBAR: Does Atlanta “build” any more starters out of relievers this offseason? Grant Holmes feels like a lock, as he made seven starts in the second half of the season (including a heroic four-inning effort in game 162 on 30 minutes’ notice when Chris Sale was scratched.) Angel Perdomo has been an IL stash while he recovers from Tommy John surgery (October 2023), while a stress reaction in his elbow has delayed Huascar Ynoa’s Tommy John rehab but he’s a candidate as well. We’ll dive into this in a separate article once the minor leaguers have declared free agency.
With the uncertainty surrounding Morton’s potential retirement3 and Fried’s free agency, there’s definitely room to add to the pitching staff this offseason.
The outfield looks to be crowded
Needing some offense and a temporary leadoff hitter until Michael Harris II returned from his hamstring strain, Atlanta made a deal with the San Francisco Giants to get Jorge Soler, hero of the 2021 World Series, back in the fold. Alex Anthopoulos told us soon after the deadline ended that the Braves had been chasing Soler for a while - they almost traded for him from the Miami Marlins at the 2022 trade deadline, resuming talks in the offseason prior to the 2023 season, but just couldn’t get a deal together. Finally, AA got his man.
Problem is, he has two more years on his contract.
Soler, who was used only sparingly in the outfield for the Marlins and never for the Giants, was thrust into right field for Atlanta with the presence of team offensive MVP Marcell Ozuna in the DH spot.
Ozuna, who hit .302 with 39 homers and 104 RBI to lead the team in most offensive categories4 has a $16M club option for 2025 (his age 34 season) that’s actually a discount on his $18M salary the previous two years. It feels pretty likely that the Braves pick that up.
Additionally, 2023 MVP Ronald Acuña Jr. is expected back around Opening Day, having rehabbed his torn ACL since May. Acuña’s return would mean the Braves have Harris, Acuña, Soler, and Jarred Kelenic all returning for 2025’s Opening Day.
So what does that mean for the outfield alignment?
That’s a good question.
The most obvious answer is to play Acuña in right, Soler in left, and allow Kelenic to be the fourth outfielder, rotating in for defense in place of Soler late in games. But does having two sub-standard defenders flanking Michael Harris hurt the defense more than having Soler’s bat helps it? And would the lack of playing time further stall the development of Kelenic, who possesses immense physical tools but has struggled to find consistency while dealing with injuries with the Seattle Mariners and as a part-time or out-of-position player with Atlanta?
If that’s not enough, here’s another complicating factor: Ramón Laureano is arbitration-eligible.
The 30-year-old’s been DFA’d by both the Oakland Athletics and Cleveland Guardians in the last two seasons5, but he found his stroke in Atlanta. After joining the Braves, Laureano hit .296 with a .832 OPS in 67 games, launching 10 homers and playing all three defensive positions.
That’s not the type of production you just let walk for nothing. It’s possible that one or more of these guys are dangled in trade talks, but contrary to what fans think, neither of the three would garner anything more than a reclamation project in return.6
The Braves need to figure something out with the outfield. It feels like the most likely scenario is to retain Laureano, allow Kelenic to start the year with everyday play time in Gwinnett, and wait for an injury. Depth will always work itself out, even when you don’t want it to - as AA mentioned in that same post-deadline press conference, “you need that position player depth” as injuries will strike. 7
What to do at shortstop?
Subscribers to Braves Today saw my first “State of the Position” article a few weeks ago, which centered on shortstop and how dire the position was in the organization.
The problem is Arcia’s bat. After a breakout first half of 2023 (.294 average, .871 OPS) earned the righthander his first career All-Star selection, he cratered. Since the 2023 ASB, Arcia’s hit just .219 with a .638 OPS. It’s the second-worst OPS and fourth-worst average among all qualifiers in that time frame.
He’s not going away - as a strong defender with a paltry $2M salary for 2025, he’s valuable to have on your roster and will definitely get plenty of opportunities to play next season.8
But there’s definitely room to improve. Arcia’s on-base percentage since last year’s All-Star Break, .273, is four points lower than any other player who has also had 700 (or more) plate appearances. Even more frustratingly, he hit just .155/.228/.172 with runners in scoring position this season, striking out more (37 times in 137 PAs) that he got on base (12 walks, 18 hits). He also only successfully executed the sacrifice and moved the runner over eight times all season.
The problem here, and it’s one that I broke down in the article above, is that there’s not a lot of high-quality or cost-effective options out there to replace Arica. Nacho Alvarez Jr. finished the season in Gwinnett and seems to be the team’s best hope, but he also struggled and looked overmatched in his brief MLB cameo this season. Will he be ready? Is there a value-buy free agent that the team can go after? What tack Atlanta takes remains to be seen, but standing pat isn’t something that the Braves have the luxury of doing.
Anything else?
There are obviously other transactions that will happen, but the other questions seem to be answered: A.J. Minter’s pending free agency can be covered by the emergence of both Dylan Lee and Aaron Bummer in the bullpen, while Daysbel Hernández showed he’s ready and able to slot into Jesse Chavez’s role as fireman. If Travis d’Arnaud decides to retire rather than telling the team he wants to return on his $8M club option, top prospect Drake Baldwin is ready to battle with Chadwick Tromp for primary backup duties behind Sean Murphy.
A common sentiment expressed by Braves players in the San Diego’s visitors clubhouse after the season-ending loss was “February won’t come soon enough.”
Alex Anthopoulos might want it to wait, because he has work to do.
Sean Murphy left in the top half of game one’s seventh inning with his oblique injury, not returning until May 27th…after Ronald Acuña Jr. was lost for the season to a torn ACL.
And even then, we don’t know if Strider will be ready for Opening Day or how good he’ll be immediately upon his return.
Morton told the media, including the AJC’s Gabe Burns, after the game two loss that he was not yet ready to announce a decision about next season just yet. “I think about (my future) all the time. It’s a decision I’ll make with my family and obviously whatever circumstances there are for baseball going forward. But that’s something where I have to go home, decompress and talk with my family and wife and kids.”
Not stolen bases
Those DFA’s were warranted. Laureano was batting .213 for Oakland when they waived him in early 2023 and .143 for Cleveland when they DFA’d him this May.
Also, given AA’s comments about how long they’ve chased Soler, I find it hard to think he’ll turn around and trade him that quickly.
The exact quote was “I can pretty much guarantee ahead of time, there will be players next year that spend time on the IL”, which…not wrong
Ozzie Albies has missed 175 of a possible 486 regular season games the last three seasons, going on the injured list five times since the start of 2022.