The Atlanta Braves enjoyed their Rule 5 draft
The Atlanta Braves were uncharacteristically busy in the Rule 5 draft this year, selecting two players in the major league phase and four more in the minor league phase
When you’re a perennial contending team that has not just divisional champion aspirations but legit World Series ones, it’s sometimes hard to stash a rookie on your roster all year.
That’s why the Atlanta Braves haven’t been very active in the Rule 5 draft under Alex Anthopoulos. The very nature of the system - select a career minor leaguer and either keep them on your active roster all season or give them back to their original organization - makes it tough for a contender to have the runway to break in a rookie when the game actually matter.
It’s so difficult, in fact, that the Braves had never selected a player in the major league portion of the Rule 5 draft since Anthopoulos joined the organization in November of 2017, breaking a three-year streak that saw them take pitchers. (Atlanta was 1-3 on keeping those pitchers for the entire season.1)
This is what makes this year’s Rule 5 draft even more surprising—despite a smaller-than-normal crop of available prospects owing to the shortened 2020 draft, the Braves took TWO players in the major league portion, the only team to do so.
Atlanta followed that up with four players selected in the minor league portion. Let’s look at the six and see if we can figure out what Atlanta saw in the sextet.
RHP Anderson Pilar, Marlins
The first-round pick for the Braves by way of the Miami Marlins, Pilar is a 2016 IFA from the Colorado Rockies that didn’t make it stateside until 2019, only to lose an entire minor league season to the 2020 COVID shutdown and eventually was released after 2023.
But he absolutely made up for it in 2024. Debuting in High-A Beloit (the Sky Carp, who play in Wisconsin) after signing as a minor league free agent with the Marlins, he pushed his way to AAA by mid-August and held his own at the highest level.2 He finished with a 1-1 record and 2.64 ERA across 58 innings, striking out 71 against only 13 walks.
While we only have Statcast data for his 15 innings in Triple-A, they paint a profile of a cutter/slider guy who has six distinct pitches, although he sticks to that initial pairing around 87% of the time.3 The cutter’s a hard ground-ball pitch, racking up a 55.0% GB rate in AAA, while the slider generates the most swing and miss and he throws the arsenal for strikes at least 50% of the time.
After a strong showing in the Dominican Winter League, where he’s struck out 27 and walked only two in 21 innings, he feels like a pretty safe bet to not only take some low-leverage innings out of the Braves pen but to also be considered for a spot start here and there.4
Baseball America officially gave him a LOW chance to stick on the MLB roster because of the difficulties of carrying a Rule 5 pick all season and Atlanta’s unique roster makeup, but I can absolutely see the fit.
SS Christian Cairo, Guardians
A 4th-rounder by Cleveland in 2019, Cairo played all over the infield in a season divided between AA and AAA (Akron and Columbus, respectively). Considered a strong defender with some good foot speed (26 stolen bases), the power ceiling is a question but he’ll provide defense and some plate discipline.
Again, peeking at my MiLB Statcast dashboard tells us that he put up a 18.8% chase rate (good) and a 22.6% strikeout rate (fine?) with a zone contact rate of almost 84% (right around average) and a 90th percentile exit velocity of 99.3 (gross - MLB average is 103).5
While it’s significantly harder for a R5 position player to stick on a roster over a reliever, Atlanta’s focus on playing the same guys virtually every day may help in this regard. Expect a lot of pregame hitting work with hitting coach Tim Hyers and strategic deployment of the youngster in blowouts and other non-competitive games to get him comfortable at the major league level.
Fun fact: Cairo’s father is former major leaguer Miguel Cairo.
Baseball America officially gave him a BELOW-AVERAGE chance to stick on the MLB roster, owing to the presence of multiple other utility infielder candidates (Nick Allen, Luke Williams, etc).
Minor league portion - four players selected
Atlanta was aggressive in the minor league portion, as well, selecting four players to join the organization.
Round 1: RHP Blane Abeyta, New York Yankees
Not a player I’ve had the privilege of watching in person, but Prospects Live Senior Draft Evaluator Brian Recca reached out with a scouting report, based on his multiple live looks:
Round 2: RHP Samuel Mejia, Tampa Bay Rays
Meija is a 2021 IFA that just couldn’t get acclimated to full-season baseball. After successful stints in both the DSL (2.63 ERA) and rookie ball (1.81), he’s now thrown 62.1 innings for Single-A Charleston to a 5.92 ERA.
Round 3: SS Lizandro Espinoza, St. Louis Cardinals
Given that the Braves don’t really have a lot of organizational depth at shortstop, it feels like a good get despite the offensive challenges - a .189 batting average and .574 OPs in his three partial trips through Single-A Palm Beach. But Espinoza’s a versatile defender who has played both shortstop and centerfield in his career while stealing 44 bags in 62 chances.
Round 4: C Dylan Shockley, Pittsburgh Pirates
A 34th-rounder in 2019, Shockley’s hit .233 last season split between AA Altoona and AAA Indianapolis. Only playing in a combined 78 games due to injuries, the University of Rio Grande product is a catcher in an organization without many to note behind top position player prospect Drake Baldwin.
Shockley’s known for a big arm, one that led him to actually pitch some in college (and mop up duty last season for Indianapolis) and steady, if unspectacular, defense.
What does this all mean?
It’s surprising to see the Braves participate in the Rule 5 draft after essentially refusing to take part in the major league portion during Alex Anthopoulos’ tenure in Atlanta.
(They’re still not beating the “austerity winter” allegations, that’s for sure.)
If I had to bet, I’d wager that either:
The Braves are planning on dropping a bag on either a starter or an outfielder (or both) and they’re trying to make low-cost moves to make sure they can get both of those things done and still have money for mid-season reinforcements if injuries/ineffectiveness come up.
They’re actually trying to reset the CBT this year and wanted to fill a bullpen spot and bench spot for virtually nothing.
I don’t know which is more likely, but now that the hot stove has cleared its Juan Soto-sized blockage and is burning again, we’ll hopefully find out pretty soon.
Dan Winkler, 2014’s selection, was stashed on the IL for 2015 after Tommy John surgery and ended up pitching 100.1 innings for Atlanta across five seasons before joining the Cubs in 2020.
While with AAA Jacksonville, he held Gwinnett scoreless for three innings with no walks and five strikeouts in his final outing of the season, a 5-1 Jumbo Shrimp win over the Stripers.
Cutter, slider, four-seam, sinker, curveball, and changeup…although he threw each of the last two exactly one time in his 277 AAA pitches, per my MiLB statcast dashboard.
Of his final five appearances in AAA this year, two were starts and four of the five went for 40 or more pitches.
It’s important to note that he had a grand total of 145 balls in play, so this is a sample of 14 BBEs and he may come up a bit. Won’t have him for plus power, but he might be able to unlock a little more EV in a larger sample size.