Projecting the 2027 Atlanta Braves lineup
Which prospects might supplement the long-term contracts on the roster three seasons from now?
Let me open this thought experiment by acknowledging how hard this is under the best of circumstances.
Atlanta’s farm system also isn’t the best of circumstances. Widely considered to be one of the worst in the game by strict prospect ranking, I’ve argued for years that it’s the perfect farm system for them - full of high-upside pitchers and complimentary bats to fill in the gaps around Atlanta’s long-term position player contracts.
So all those caveats on the table, let’s see if we can project a roster for 2027’s Opening Day, using players who will still be under contract at that point (sorry, Chris Sale) and prospects currently in the system.
Matter of fact, let’s do two - a “most likely” projection and a “biggest upside” projection that might be less likely but more impactful if it hits.
Let me know your thoughts! You can do it via comment here or on social media, where I’m at CrosbyBaseball on both Twitter and Bluesky.
Here’s the “likely” 2027 Opening Day roster
Lineup
C: Sean Murphy
1B: Matt Olson
2B: Ozzie Albies
3B: Austin Riley
SS: Nacho Alvarez Jr.
LF: Jurickson Profar
CF: Michael Harris II
RF: Ronald Acuña Jr.
DH: Rotates, but likely Drake Baldwin and the two corner outfielders
Bench: OF Jarred Kelenic, OF Carlos D. Rodriguez, MI Christian Cairo, 3B Ambioris Tavarez
Yes, that’s five outfielders. On 2027’s Opening Day, Jurickson Profar will be 34 and Ronald will be a high-workload 29. There’s a legit possibility that the Braves will be rotating both corner outfielders in at designated hitter with Drake Baldwin to keep their legs fresh.
(Baldwin’s still going to get the majority of those PAs - guessing 300 - with both corner outfielders maybe getting one or two days a week there and the rest going to Olson or Riley on a rest day, Murphy, etc.)
Doing this makes Kelenic, who will be in his next to final year of team control before free agency, the de facto 4th starter in the outfield1. He’s probably starting two to three times a week plus rotating in defensively for Profar, etc.
Your backups at first base would include Profar, Tavarez, Cairo, and Riley, while Tavarez and Cairo are on the shortlist to take over on a short-term basis at third base were an injury to strike.
Here are the fourteen(2) pitchers for this squad:
Rotation
RH Spencer Strider
RH Spencer Schwellenbach
RH Reynaldo López
RH AJ Smith-Shawver
RH Drue Hackenberg
RH JR Ritchie
Bullpen
Closer: RH Hurston Waldrep
RH Daysbel Hernández
LH Dylan Lee
LH Angel Perdomo
RH Owen Murphy
RH Grant Holmes
RH Rolddy Munoz
RH Anderson Pilar
The tough decision here was Ritchie over Murphy for the rotation, which came down to stuff, mostly - Ritchie sat 92 and touched 96 last season after Tommy John, while Muphy was more 90-92, touching 94 before going down for TJ)
Joe Jiménez, Pierce Johnson, and Aaron Bummer have all wrapped their contracts at this time, as well, but thankfully, Dylan Lee’s still around to be our go-to lefty out of the pen. Angel Perdomo isn’t a free agent until 2029, so we’ll pencil him in as the second lefty (although that could also be Hayden Harris if he rebounds from last season’s struggles in Gwinnett.)
Not a bad roster, honestly, but there’s some high variance names that could go on here and change the complexion of this team.
Here’s the “lottery ticket” 2027 Opening Day roster
C: Sean Murphy and Drake Baldwin in a pretty even timeshare
1B: Matt Olson
2B: Nacho Alvarez Jr.
3B: Austin Riley
SS: John Gil
LF: Jurickson Profar
CF: Michael Harris II
RF: Ronald Acuña Jr.
DH: Mostly Ozzie Albies, but Drake Baldwin/Sean Murphy and others rotate in as well
Bench: OF Jarred Kelenic, OF Luis Guanipa, MI Christian Cairo3, 1B/DH David McCabe
Gil being ready for the majors is, in my mind, a significant defensive upgrade over Alvarez (who many, not just me, wonder if he can even stick at short) and with Nacho bumping over to 2nd, an even bigger defensive upgrade over Ozzie, who will be in the final year of his team control.
Listen, I love Ozzie as a member of the Braves. But let’s also be real: His defense hasn’t graded out positively since 2022 and his throwing arm is already one of the worst in the entire league. How much more might it deteriorate in the next two seasons?
If Atlanta doesn’t need Nacho to play shortstop, putting him at second and letting Ozzie be the primary DH both play into Atlanta’s desire to not rotate the lineup too much and gets Ozzie out of the field.
Guanipa and McCabe are both upside plays - Guanipa’s the most likely outfielder out of the current minor league group to reach the majors first, able to back up centerfield but restricted to leftfield otherwise due to a subpar arm. McCabe’s got stupid raw power but can’t really play anywhere else but first. Once Olson’s contract is up, (2029 or 2030, depending on if the club option is picked up), McCabe and 2024 draftee Nick Montgomery are the favorites as of now to compete to replace Matty O at the cold corner.4
Rotation
RH Spencer Strider
RH Spencer Schwellenbach
RH AJ Smith-Shawver
RH Drue Hackenberg
RH JR Ritchie
LH Cam Caminiti
Bullpen
Closer: RH Reynaldo López
RH Hurston Waldrep
RH Daysbel Hernández
LH Dylan Lee
RH Blake Burkhalter
RH Grant Holmes
RH Rolddy Munoz
RH Owen Murphy
Few notable changes here - Caminiti ready to debut to open 2027 and moving López to the bullpen.
For Caminiti, it’s really that I expect him to be a midseason debut in 2027 (at best) versus doing it out of Spring Training. That’s not a service time manipulation thing, it’s that he's essentially starting from scratch this season with his minor league development and very few high school arms are ready for the majors after two minor league seasons, especially ones that reclassified and were still just 17 when drafted.
For López to the bullpen: It’s not that I don’t think he can succeed as a starter, but his stuff and backend experience would make him a great closer after Raisel Iglesias is gone, especially if no one steps up and dominates in the job (looking at y’all, Daysbel and Hurston, who I’m both still worried about walking too many guys to be a true set-it-and-forget-it closer).
But this is absolutely a more lethal pen that the initial projection, owing to the extra gas of López in the 9th (which bumps everyone else down a role).
Thoughts?
Barring a late extension to Profar, Kelenic would then get one year as a full-time starter in 2028 prior to hitting free agency, assuming the Braves haven’t gotten anyone else from the minors up to Atlanta. We’re getting to that.
An explanation is required here. I fully believe that, as the league shifts to six-man rotations, there’s going to be a change to allow one more roster spot...provided it’s for a starter. I’m guessing that needs to be collectively bargained, but it helps keep starter innings down (and subsequently their salaries, which the owners want) and provides 30 or more (depending on if expansion is approved) jobs in the majors, which the players association would likely go for.
It was so tempting to put Jose Perdomo on this projection, but having lost essentially all of 2024, asking him to shoot through the minors and be ready for a call-up in just two seasons is a bit too much to ask for.
There’s a world where Atlanta moves Riley to first late in his career, but it’s not this early. It might not even be by the end of his contract in 2033, honestly - he’s put in a lot of work defensively and has improved to ‘Gold Glove contender’ rather quickly. He might pull a Chipper and just stick there until he retires…hopefully as a member of the Braves.