Is this Austin Riley's MVP year?

Braves third baseman Austin Riley is better than ever, in almost every single respect

Lost in the extended conversations about Jarred Kelenic’s baserunning error from Saturday and Ronald Acuña Jr’s social media response to it on Sunday morning is this:

Austin Riley’s playing like an MVP contender.

© Brett Davis-Imagn Images

The big third baseman has plenty of MVP finishes in his career, but they’re a bit downballot - a pair of 7th-place finishes and one 6th-place finish. This season, however, could be the year for a Top 3 finish or even a win if Riley continues showing the all-around improvement he’s flashed early in the 2025 season.

Let’s talk about it.

Riley’s improved on defense and the basepaths

With the age-related decline of Nolan Arenado, who won ten consecutive NL Gold Glove awards from 2013-2022, the rest of the NL’s quality hot corner defenders have finally had their chances to contend for the honor. Ke’Bryan Hayes of the Pirates won in 2023, while last season’s award went to Matt Chapman of the Giants.

Is this the year?

Riley reportedly dropped a bit of weight over the offseason to help with his defense, and early results are positive. For the first time in his career, Riley currently has a positive Run Value for range at third base, sitting at +1 on the young season.

Drilling down into the specifics, Riley’s continued to be excellent at the Chipper Jones-esque charging barehand play with a +3 mark, but also has a +2 mark against left-handed batters.¹

This one requires a bit of explanation - the Braves employ as much of a shift as legally allowed when a lefty is at the plate, stationing the shortstop just on the left side of second base and Riley in the shortstop’s traditional position. While Statcast does adjust for this different positioning when evaluating defense, he has more ground to cover and gets credit for increased range as he does it.

While the baserunning grades for Riley aren’t great, they aren’t bad - exactly zero Run Value through the early part of the season so far. While he hasn’t created any value through attempting stolen bases, he also hasn’t created any outs through being picked off, either. And while Riley’s not incredibly aggressive at taking extra bases, he is efficient - while he advances on only 29% of his opportunities, he’s been successful every single time. Over time, this will add up to positive value for the surprisingly fleet-of-foot slugger.

In simpler words: It’s not flashy baserunning, but it’s smart baserunning.

But as much as the last two MVPs have made a large impact on the basepaths, the MVP award is still won at the plate with a bat in your hands.

And his offense has improved this year, too.

The Statcast card is, as always, bright red

Austin Riley’s statcast card has the usual bright red in the top half, but we need to talk about some of the walk and strikeout-related metrics towards the bottom.

Riley’s his usual bright red in quality of contract metrics, but you’ll notice his walk and strikeout rates are, frankly, awful.

The explanation here is that rough seven-game stretch to start the year, one in which Atlanta got absolutely whacked by the Padres and Dodgers on the road. Turns out going 3-27 with two walks and eleven strikeouts to open the season can still result in terrible ratios when it’s a total sample size of 90 at-bats!

Since that road trip, Riley’s hitting .369 (24-65) with six homers and 15 RBI (and has struck out only 20 times, still an elevated strikeout rate but not egregiously so.

Also, some small sample size but a positive sign: Riley’s pulling more balls in the air than ever before, a recipe to hit for power. The league average over his career is 16.6% and he’s been slightly better, averaging 19.8% over that same span…but this year he’s currently at 37.3%.

For context, that 37.3% is the third-highest mark in baseball among qualified hitters and would have led baseball last season.

Yes, that will normalize a bit, but likely in the low-20s rather than the high teens he’s been in the last few years.

That success with pulling balls in the air has come at the expense of leaving the ball on the ground, with Riley’s ground ball rate currently sitting at just 16.9%. That’s a trade you’re happy to make!

That will also normalize a bit, but likely to a lower level than his usual 36-40%. (League average last year was 42.7% and is currently 43.1% in 2025).

So, to recap: Riley’s striking out more and walking less, but after you subtract the season-opening losing streak, not egregiously so. But at the same time, he’s hitting significantly more balls in the air to the pull side, a recipe that allows for maximum power and home-run production.

Where are the power numbers?

And ultimately, if Riley wants to contend for the MVP award, that pull-side flyball production needs to translate to home runs at a higher level than in past seasons. Riley’s career high for homers in a season is 38 (2022) and his streak of four consecutive 30+ homer seasons was broken last season, when Riley struggled early and then missed the final 38 games of the year.

But this season? He’s on a 49-homer pace.

If Riley hits between .280 and .300 - and that’s not out of the question, as Riley hit .303 in 2021 and .281 in 2023 - and launches 45 or so homers while maintaining the Gold Glove-caliber defense, he’ll be a top-three finisher for MVP for the first time in his career.

The analogue here is Bryce Harper in 2021 (a .309 average with 35 homers and 84 RBI) or to go a bit farther back, Kris Bryant in 2016 (.292 with 39 homers and 102 RBI).

Riley’s on pace for 45 homers and 117 RBI. Hopefully the higher homer totals can offset an average that might come in slightly below Bryant or near Bryant’s.

1. He’s currently negative in moving to his right (towards third base), potentially impacted by his non-shift positioning, which continues to drift towards the shortstop position. Also, all of the positive and negative numbers for different factors of defense don’t equal the overall +2 score because…defensive stats don’t always make sense, I guess?