How does Atlanta adjust the rotation when Spencer Strider returns?

The Braves have a few options for their rotation when Spencer Strider gets back in the mix

The Atlanta Braves are about to have a good problem.

Last year’s Opening Day starter, Spencer Strider, just completed his third minor league rehab start and it was one of his best yet - 5.1 innings pitched against a formidable Norfolk team (Orioles affiliate) with one run allowed on three hits, walking two while striking out thirteen. With Strider throwing 90 pitches, it was likely the final rehab start before he returns to the Braves rotation.

Manager Brian Snitker didn’t outright come out and say this prior to Thursday night’s (rain-delayed) game, but he intimated that the righty would join the team in Toronto and would then line up to start on either Tuesday (regular rest) or Wednesday (extra rest).

(With Spencer Schwellenbach’s start on Thursday coming to a premature end because of a rain delay at only 81 pitches, it’s entirely likely he goes on regular rest next Tuesday and Strider gets the series finale on Wednesday).

And this creates a good problem - for the first time, Atlanta will have too many starting pitchers to choose from. Let’s break down the options for how the Braves configure the rotation when Strider’s added to the mix.

The easy answer is to send someone down

Both AJ Smith-Shawver and Bryce Elder are optionable, so one of the two could be going to Gwinnett and joining the Stripers rotation. It’s legitimately an open question as to which one you’d send down, though, and there are pros and cons to each.

Let’s break down the cases for sending each player down.

Smith-Shawver

Pros: Less pressure while he continues to work on his control - the fastball locations still aren’t as crisp as they need to be, and he’s still at just 270.1 innings on the mound as a professional so more development time will never hurt.

Cons: There’s a difference in getting innings in the minors and facing minor league hitters. I’d argue that what AJSS needs is consistency - a starting routine against major league hitters every five (or six) days. Also, despite being only 22-year-old, Smith-Shawver is facing his final option year the next time he gets sent down, so using that now when you don’t necessarily HAVE to means less flexibility next season for the young flamethrower.

Elder

Pros: Elder, somehow, has this and one additional option year remaining and so sending him down preserves maximum flexibility for the future. Also, as someone with a lot more major league experience under his belt, he’s likely better able to acclimate to moving up and down than a young player who just lost prospect eligibility.

Cons: Elder brings you stability in your rotation from a workload perspective. He’s pitched 174.2 innings in a season before and is someone you know can go every fifth day for the season.¹

(Plus, if you listen to Joe Simpson, sinkerballers are better when they’re slightly fatigued anyway - helps keep them from elevating the ball.)

If Atlanta really does need to send someone down, my vote is Elder gets the ticket to Gwinnett.

Just keep everyone

The Braves could decline to send someone down, obviously, and just add Strider to their existing rotation to make it a six-man. While the performance of the extra starters wasn’t…stellar last season, the extra rest helped a rotation full of workload questions make it to October mostly healthy.

Projecting out starters, it could look something like this:

Chris Sale
Grant Holmes
Spencer Schwellenbach
Spencer Strider
Bryce Elder
AJ Smith-Shawver

(NOTE: This isn’t based on skill or some sort of ranking, it’s based on when they last pitched and/or are lined up to start next.)

Now, doing that requires a sacrifice on the back end, so a reliever has to lose a job. Daysbel Hernández and Dylan Lee are both optionable while moving on from Enyel De Los Santos, Rafael Montero, and José Suarez requires someone to be exposed to waivers.

Neither Hernández and Lee are likely moving - they’re both locked into higher leverage roles in the pen at this point. De Los Santos has pitched well, while Suarez has been fine and Montero is an unknown but was just acquired at a non-zero cost from the Astros earlier this week.

If this is the route they’re taking, my preference would be to give Montero and Suarez some run over the weekend to see if one separates from the other against the Rays. Winner stays, loser gets DFA’d.

READ: What the Atlanta Braves saw in Rafael Montero

Move a starter to the pen

This is probably my least favorite option, since it combines the downside of pitching everyone on regular rest with also losing a relief option to either Gwinnett or a DFA.

But if you do this, Grant Holmes feels like the obvious choice, right? He was a reliever last season so transitioning him back to a long-man/spot-starter role isn’t the largest leap in the world.

That said, I do think that either Holmes or Smith-Shawver could work out of the pen. They both have good velocity and firm arsenals that will play up in relief, although I think both need to stick as starters for their own development as well as the team’s sake.

I do wonder what would happen to Bryce Elder’s stuff in a relief role - we’ve already seen his velocity tick up on its own, although I suspect that’s also caused some degradation in his stuff.² He’s probably better suited to a long-relief role than a traditional single-inning reliever, so that’s the least attractive option of the three to me.

So, what would you do?

If I had my druthers, we’d jettison one of the low-leverage relievers and keep six starters. Similar to the season’s first week, Holmes and others can pitch an inning out of the pen here and there to help with reliever workload if needed, but I want all of Atlanta’s starters to get the advantage of the extra rest that proved to be so beneficial last season.

1. As much as I want to say he gives you a stable floor, I’m not convinced that’s true anymore

2. Specifically, the inability to keep his slider down at the bottom or below the zone, as well as the frequent elevation of his sinker.