Good analysis and agree on Lee. But I disagree with your assessment of what would address this team’s isssues. What’s needed at this point is a new promotion: A bobble head covering the 5 stages of grief. We need to get through Denial, Anger, Bargaining and Depression to Acceptance. And there’s a lot to accept! The team PECOTA projected 3 months ago as having the second best roster in MLB is on its way to a 95 loss season, fourth place and 20+ games out of first. Our peer NL teams are the Rockies, Pirates and Marlins. And the Braves’ payroll is twice as high as 2 of those teams. (Oh the pain!)
Once we all get to Acceptance, we can stop blaming AA, Snit, the 3B or hitting coach, injuries, a thin bullpen, lack of SP depth, light hitting SS, bad luck, et.al. And we’ll see the problem clearly: a core group of players, who have longterm contracts and are dramaticallly underperforming. And we’ll realize the expectation should be more of the same for 2026 unless drastic changes are made. The front office needs to approach the trade deadline and the off-season as a rebuild. (Oh, woe-is-me!)
A rebuild will be painful, but take it from a Braves fan since 1967, losing 102 games doesn’t feel a lot worse than losing 95, especially when preseason expectations are properly aligned. But what is Acceptance? the Braves best player, Doyle Alexander, at the trade deadline in 1987 on the way to a 92 loss 4th place finish. Cox showed a lot of courage in making that move and fans weren’t happy. But, Bobby’s courage paid off - the Tigers sent the Braves HOFer John Smoltz. The best hope is that the front office reaches Acceptance by the 2025 trade deadline.
Yeah, I made this point on the pod the other day - sure, a bunch of folks want Snit fired and all that, but it doesn't fix the problem of the core of the roster just not performing anywhere near the back of their baseball cards.
While I do think there's some blame to go on the bullpen (and AA, by extension), etc, the core of the issue is the offense and I'm going to spend the off day going through all the losses and assigning blame to each loss to attempt and make this point in a newsletter
Look forward to the analysis. But the elephant in the room is this: Can the core players play better? (Much better? 1 total base in 20 ABs with 9 SOs… are you kidding me?). You’ve done a great job on looking at the metrics in trying to answer that question. But I think it’s an issue that analytics can’t answer. It goes to the make-up and character of these players. They’re all quality professionals and by definition they’re extraordinarily talented and hard-working. That’s true of almost every thousand guys that will put on a major league uniform in 2025. The question is: do these core players have the fire and determination to win championships after they’ve achieved lifetime financial security? I’ve worked in Silicon Valley for >20 years and have watched a fair number of folks become suddenly wealthy. Each person’s reaction is different, but they all change.
Good analysis and agree on Lee. But I disagree with your assessment of what would address this team’s isssues. What’s needed at this point is a new promotion: A bobble head covering the 5 stages of grief. We need to get through Denial, Anger, Bargaining and Depression to Acceptance. And there’s a lot to accept! The team PECOTA projected 3 months ago as having the second best roster in MLB is on its way to a 95 loss season, fourth place and 20+ games out of first. Our peer NL teams are the Rockies, Pirates and Marlins. And the Braves’ payroll is twice as high as 2 of those teams. (Oh the pain!)
Once we all get to Acceptance, we can stop blaming AA, Snit, the 3B or hitting coach, injuries, a thin bullpen, lack of SP depth, light hitting SS, bad luck, et.al. And we’ll see the problem clearly: a core group of players, who have longterm contracts and are dramaticallly underperforming. And we’ll realize the expectation should be more of the same for 2026 unless drastic changes are made. The front office needs to approach the trade deadline and the off-season as a rebuild. (Oh, woe-is-me!)
A rebuild will be painful, but take it from a Braves fan since 1967, losing 102 games doesn’t feel a lot worse than losing 95, especially when preseason expectations are properly aligned. But what is Acceptance? the Braves best player, Doyle Alexander, at the trade deadline in 1987 on the way to a 92 loss 4th place finish. Cox showed a lot of courage in making that move and fans weren’t happy. But, Bobby’s courage paid off - the Tigers sent the Braves HOFer John Smoltz. The best hope is that the front office reaches Acceptance by the 2025 trade deadline.
Yeah, I made this point on the pod the other day - sure, a bunch of folks want Snit fired and all that, but it doesn't fix the problem of the core of the roster just not performing anywhere near the back of their baseball cards.
While I do think there's some blame to go on the bullpen (and AA, by extension), etc, the core of the issue is the offense and I'm going to spend the off day going through all the losses and assigning blame to each loss to attempt and make this point in a newsletter
Look forward to the analysis. But the elephant in the room is this: Can the core players play better? (Much better? 1 total base in 20 ABs with 9 SOs… are you kidding me?). You’ve done a great job on looking at the metrics in trying to answer that question. But I think it’s an issue that analytics can’t answer. It goes to the make-up and character of these players. They’re all quality professionals and by definition they’re extraordinarily talented and hard-working. That’s true of almost every thousand guys that will put on a major league uniform in 2025. The question is: do these core players have the fire and determination to win championships after they’ve achieved lifetime financial security? I’ve worked in Silicon Valley for >20 years and have watched a fair number of folks become suddenly wealthy. Each person’s reaction is different, but they all change.