Do we already know the Atlanta Braves lineup for Opening Day?
Without Ronald Acuña Jr. for Opening Day, someone new will need to step up in the leadoff role for the first few weeks of the season
Ronald Acuña Jr. has staked his claim to the leadoff spot, both with his words and his actions.
All the way back in 2019, he went on the record about the matter, saying “If it was up to me personally, I'd like to stay in the leadoff spot, simply because I like hitting there.” His actions have reinforced that, with the outfielder hitting 151 homers from the top of the order, including 34 to leadoff a game.
But he’s also not going to be in the Opening Day lineup. Alex Anthopoulos has been very insistent that the team wouldn’t rush Ronald back from his torn ACL, stating repeatedly that he won’t play in spring. For his credit, Ronald’s stated goal (to me) is May 2nd, the start of the weekend home series against the reigning World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers.
What is Atlanta going to do on Opening Day?
Have they already given us the lineup?
Offseason free agent signing Jurickson Profar has played in two spring training games so far. In both of them, he’s led off:
Feb 26th vs Pittsburgh:
March 1st vs Toronto:
Is Profar the answer to Atlanta’s leadoff question?
Why Profar leading off makes sense
The answer to this question can be found in that Feb 26th game: Profar led off with a double on the very first pitch he saw, later scoring when Matt Olson launched a homer to stake Atlanta to an early 2-0 lead.
What was the big core competency of that 2023 offense other than hitting homers? Scoring early. The 2023 squad scored 146 of their league-leading 947 runs in the first inning, the 2nd-highest total in the expansion era.1
65 of Atlanta’s games featured a first-inning run, with the team hitting the four-run mark fourteen times, also the 2nd-highest total in modern baseball history.2
Jurickson Profar leading off makes sense - his on-base mark of .380 in 2024 would have been the best mark on the entire Atlanta roster, with only Marcell Ozuna’s .378 remotely in the same ballpark.3 Profar was even better when leading off for the Padres last season, hitting .380 with a .451 on-base in 19 games and 83 plate appearances. In his career, his most frequent lineup position is leading off, with 233 games and 1033 plate appearances from that spot.
Hitting him leadoff is the obvious answer.
It’s outside of the prototypical leadoff profile, however
Part of the reason Ronald Acuña Jr. has been so good leading off in his career is his ability to either hit a homer or get on base.
It’s also because he’s a threat to advance when he’s on the basepaths, not a trait that Profar currently shares. Ronald has stolen 192 bases out of the leadoff spot in the lineup, including 56 in the first inning. That was another common sight in that 2023 offense: Ronald getting on somehow, putting himself into scoring position by stealing 2nd (and sometimes 3rd, too) and then being driven in by one of Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, or Matt Olson.
Jurickson Profar’s not currently in that same baserunning realm as Acuña. His sprint speed last season was barely ahead of the bottom quartile, coming in at a 26th-percentile 26.5 ft/sec.
This seems to be a theme in Atlanta. Members of the Braves roster who were slower in 2024 (minimum 10 baserunning opportunities): Marcell Ozuna and Travis d’Arnaud (25.7 ft/sec), Orlando Arcia (25.6 ft/sec)4, Matt Olson (25.5 ft/sec), Sean Murphy (25.2 ft/sec), Gio Urshela (25.1 ft/sec), and Chadwick Tromp (24.2 ft/sec).
That’s not to say that you can’t be an effective baserunner with speed like that - Profar stole 10 bags last season and graded out neutral in aggregated baserunning metrics5, but it’s not the platonic ideal you want from a leadoff man.
As a team that’s never really valued stolen bases outside of Acuña and Michael Harris II (even Ozzie’s stopped attempting steals - he averaged less than one attempt per ten games last season), it’s not a big deal that Profar isn’t adding this dimension.
What happens when Acuña returns?
He’s going to go back to leadoff, that’s what.
But what does Profar do?
Batting him 2nd seems to make the most sense to me, with either Ozzie Albies or Michael Harris II being the one that loses at-bats by moving down from 2nd to 6th.
It’s important to note that Austin Riley’s actually been the one batting 2nd in both Profar-as-leadoff lineups so far. I’m struggling to decide if that’s the Opening Day configuration or if it’s just something the team is testing out in spring.
But moving Profar behind Acuña means the team’s two best on-base options are batting in the first inning, with the three best (remaining) power producers behind them in Riley, Olson, and Ozuna.
That then gives you a “2nd leadoff” man for the bottom half of the order in Michael Harris II, with Ozzie Albies, Sean Murphy, Jarred Kelenic/Bryan De La Cruz, and Orlando Arcia behind.
What other options to lead off are there?
I’ve had the thought a bit this spring at batting Profar 2nd, both on Opening Day and when Ronald returns.
(For what it’s worth, the AJC’s Justin Toscano agreed with me when he came on the Braves Today podcast two weeks ago)
We’ve seen how much manager Brian Snitker likes to NOT change his lineup if he can help it.6 Start off with a stolen base threat in Michael Harris II at leadoff, follow him up with Profar, and then the big three of Riley/Olson/Ozuna. It’s also an easy transition to Ronald’s return because Harris just drops down to behind Ozuna and Profar doesn’t need to change his lineup spot or what he’s doing.
Let’s see what the Braves do over the next few weeks and we’ll revisit this right before the season starts.
The Expansion Era has been since 1961, and the only team to beat them in that timeframe was the 2000 Cardinals, who had 147 runs in the first inning.
This one’s the Modern Era, so since 1900, and the only team to beat them in that timeframe was the 1950 Boston Red Sox, who did it 16 times.
Ronald had a .351 and Jorge Soler had a .356, both in 49 games, while Whit Merrifield had a .348 in 42 games. The only member of the Opening Day roster above .325 other than Ozuna is Matt Olson, who finished with a .333.
That’s right; Orlando Arcia was slower on the basepaths last season than one of the team’s three catchers. I still don’t really know how he grades out so well on his defensive range (+4, 87th percentile) unless it’s all positioning and elite reactions because it’s definitely not raw foot speed getting him there.
Despite getting negative marks in both extra bases taken and stolen bases
In 2023, Atlanta only used 80 different lineups for 162 games, with the two most commonly used lineups only differing at catcher and being used a combined 33 times. By contrast, 2024 saw 119 total batting orders and the most common lineup was used just six times.