Braves Opening Day Roster Projection 2.0: Is This It for Offseason Adds?
The Atlanta Braves currently have a roster that can compete not only for the division, but the World Series. Are they done adding this winter?
It sure feels like the Atlanta Braves are mostly done adding.
After 2/3rds of a winter that consisted of several “goodbye” posts and many (many) minor league deals, we’re just about four weeks away from pitchers and catchers reporting to North Port for the start of spring training.
And Atlanta has still not given out a guaranteed major league contract, one of just a few teams at this point in the offseason (joining Minnesota, Seattle, St. Louis, and San Diego.)
While there’s still time to sign a major leaguer (and a path as well, as free agents usually lower their asks as spring training approaches and they don’t have a camp to report to), it doesn’t feel like there will be many impactful signings made between now and Opening Day.
As such, let’s update the roster projection for where the team currently stands. Here’s v1, from late November:
(BOLD denotes starters, ITALICS denotes a player on the injured list to open the season - No, an Opening Day roster prediction doesn’t need to list injured players, but as they’re folks who absolutely will be on the roster when they’re healthy, I wanted to list them.)
Catcher (2)
In: Sean Murphy, Chadwick Tromp
Others on the 40-man roster: None
Other candidates for a spot: Drake Baldwin
Expected MLB signings? No
No changes from the last projection, as the team hasn’t made any moves here and there’s a clear pecking order: Murphy as the starter, Tromp as a backup catching option that the staff likes throwing to, and Baldwin starting the season getting more experience in Gwinnett.
I predicted the team to make another outside signing as a depth option for Gwinnett when we did the last projection, and they did make an add, just not via free agency: Dylan Shockley was taken from the Pirates in the minor league portion of December’s Rule 5 draft. He would pair with Baldwin and returning veteran Sandy León to give Atlanta a trio of catchers in Gwinnett in case of emergency - AA learned his lesson from that 2021 season.
Infield (6)
In: Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, Orlando Arcia, Austin Riley, Nick Allen, Luke Williams
Others on the 40-man roster: SS Nacho Alvarez Jr., INF Christian Cairo (Rule 5 selection)
Other candidates for a spot: 2B Kobe Kato, 1B/OF Garrett Cooper, UTIL Eddy Alvarez, INF José Devers
Expected MLB signings? None
There’s a LOT more depth options here than there were in November, when my initial writeup listed only Nacho Alvarez and Kobe Kato. The Braves took Cairo in the Rule 5 draft and then made a trio of minor league signings in Cooper, Alvarez, and Devers, although all of them are on the outside looking in as we approach February.
Cooper’s played over 50 games of outfield in his MLB career, but primarily first base since 2021 while Devers is still trying to hit at shortstop and Alvarez’ core competency is playing seven different defensive positions at an average-level. Every minor league team needs that veteran - playing time can be weird in the minors if there’s a sudden call-up, injury, or playing time/position decree from the parent organization)
(Gwinnett had a similar player to this profile last year in Alejo López, who played 2B, 3B, SS, and both corner outfield spots for the Stripers last season.)
Obviously, the only position battle in spring will be shortstop, where Orlando Arcia will be trying to hold off Nacho Alvarez, Nick Allen, and whatever other backup infielder with an “A” last name Atlanta picks up between now and then.
Outfield (4 + 1 on IL)
In: Ronald Acuña Jr., Michael Harris II, Jarred Kelenic, Bryan De La Cruz, Eli White
Others on the 40-man roster: Carlos D. Rodriguez
Other candidates for a spot: Conner Capel
Expected MLB signings? Possibly, a depth option late in spring training
Again, not much movement in this projection. We did get clarity on the final outfield spot with the non-guaranteed deal given to Bryan De La Cruz - there’s a path to him contributing in 2025, one we broke down soon after the signing.
This feels like the position group most primed to see a veteran added in spring, similar to how Adam Duvall was added late last year. While Duvall failed to get up to speed at all last season, it’s still a pattern likely to be replicated if either De La Cruz or Kelenic struggles in Grapefruit League play and/or Acuña has a setback from the initial mid-May injury return timetable.
(I personally think Ronald returns sooner than mid-May, which I discussed on a special Saturday bonus episode of the pod)
Designated Hitter (1)
In that same podcast, I played a quote from Alex Anthopoulos establishing that Ozuna would NOT be asked to play in the outfield - AA explained that Ozuna's injury-weakened arm strength is a liability in left, and that’s too severe of a tradeoff for the team to make.
But he’s set for a final contractual season as designated hitter (at a discount, too) and can step in as an emergency first baseman if Matt Olson were unable to go, for some reason.
Starting Pitcher (5)
In: Chris Sale, Reynaldo López, Spencer Schwellenbach, Spencer Strider, Ian Anderson, Grant Holmes
Others on the 40-man roster: AJ Smith-Shawver, Bryce Elder, Hurston Waldrep, Allan Winans, Dylan Dodd, Davis Daniel, Connor Gillispie
Other candidates for a spot: Drue Hackenberg, Lucas Braun, Zach Thompson, Darius Vines, Royber Salinas
Expected MLB signings? No
The Braves clearly are happy with their starting pitching options, which comes down to the injury timetable for Strider and the potential bounceback from Ian Anderson.
Strider’s going to have a normal spring training, per the player himself, and the expectation is that he’s able to return to the rotation after about a month of the season. His addition gives you a 4th playoff-caliber starter behind the trio of Sale, Schwellenbach, and López.
Ian Anderson’s more interesting - out of options, he needs to make the rotation or learn to pitch in the bullpen. Anthopoulos is confident in his ability to contribute, though, as he told Cellini & Dimino on 680 The Fan last Thursday:
(If you’re interested, we broke down that entire interview on a podcast last week)
Other options in spring include trade acquisition Davis Daniel, minor league free agent Connor Gillispie, former All-Star Bryce Elder, and top prospects AJ Smith-Shawver and Hurston Waldrep.
I think that Smith-Shawver winning a rotation spot in spring is the best-case scenario for the team, as Anderson and AJSS taking the final two spots allows Grant Holmes to officially be in the bullpen and work as a swingman. If those two can emerge as reliable MLB options, it also allows the team to slow play the Strider return and ensure that not only is he healthy, but he’s also maximally effective before reinserting him in the rotation.
Atlanta’s used between 10 and 13 MLB starters every season of the last four - if I was predicting the 10 to 13 for next year, here’s my guess as to the correct pecking order:
100% Locks: Sale, Schwellenbach, López, Strider, Anderson, Holmes
First-men-up: Smith-Shawver, Elder
Second wave of reinforcements: Daniel
”Try it and see”: Waldrep, a prospect debut (Hackenberg, Braun)
We really don’t want to use these guys: Winans, Dodd, Vines
There’s 15 names for you - let’s hope all fifteen aren’t needed next season.
Relievers (8)
In: Raisel Iglesias, Pierce Johnson, Aaron Bummer (L), Joe Jiménez, Dylan Lee (L), Daysbel Hernandez, Enoli Paredes, Anderson Pilar, Enyel De Los Santos
Others on the 40-man roster: Rolddy Munoz, Angel Perdomo (L), Domingo Gonzalez
Other candidates for a spot: Zach Thompson, Darius Vines, Hayden Harris (L), Kolton Ingram (L), Jordan Weems, Wander Suero, and literally almost any other pitcher who spent time in AA or AAA last season
Expected MLB signings? A depth signing/trade for a former (or future) closer in spring training
Obviously the hardest spot to predict, I’ve got the Braves passing up on both remaining 40-man rostered relievers in Munoz and Gonzalez in favor of adding both De Los Santos and Paredes to the roster.
De Los Santos feels like a “fix the slider, fix the player” situation - he lost eight inches of drop on the spinner from 2023 to 2024 and his performance cratered. Paredes gets a ton of ground balls and has some really good AAA peripherals, so I’m going with him for now.
But watch out for Jordan Weems. A 4S/SL guy with a promising splitter that was underutilized last season, a very Braves adjustment is on the way: Throw the splitter WAY more than you currently are, and maybe break out that curveball more than 1% of the time while you’re at it. If anyone gets promoted from Gwinnett in mid-May and never goes back down, Weems is my prediction to be that guy.