Braves Opening Day roster projection 1.0: Work to do, but this is a championship core already
Detailing the needs on Atlanta's roster as the offseason really starts to get going
Now that the Braves have declared their offseason intentions with the club option and non-tender decisions, we have a little better idea of what to expect throughout the winter from a player acquisition standpoint: A starting pitcher, a leftfielder (preferably a left-handed one), and if possible, some bullpen and middle infield help.
Outside of the pending free agents like Max Fried and Charlie Morton, the Braves have freed up about an additional $60M in available salary space by trading away Jorge Soler, declining the club option on Travis d’Arnaud, and non-tendering Griffin Canning and Ramón Laureano.
So there’s money to spend if the front office is so inclined. (We wrote about the possibility that the Braves take this season to reset their luxury tax obligations by staying under the CBT yesterday.)
But assuming the front office proceeds as expected, with payroll either returning to last year’s level or higher, there are some obvious places to see additions to the roster. Let’s look at each position group and project who makes the Opening Day roster, highlighting where an add would be most beneficial and where the Braves can afford to stand pat.
(BOLD denotes starters, ITALICS denotes a player on the injured list to open the season1)
Catcher (2)
In: Sean Murphy, Chadwick Tromp
Others on the 40-man roster: None
Other candidates for a spot: Drake Baldwin
Expected MLB signings? No
If everything breaks right this season, Sean Murphy is going to play a lot more next season…something I’ve discussed in both podcast and written form as the necessary step to getting him back to where Braves fans expected him to be from an offensive production standpoint.
The decision to roster Tromp over Baldwin on the MLB roster is pretty simple - Tromp is out of options and the team could lose him if he doesn’t make it, while he’s not expected to play that much under the ideal scenario for Atlanta anyway. Baldwin, who has only 75 combined AAA games (and only 45 behind the plate) gets more consistent play time as he looks to continue developing for 2026.
(Here’s AA in early October discussing his desire for as much minor league development as possible for Baldwin.)
While I fully expect another outside signing here to reinforce the Gwinnett roster and give the team another emergency MLB option (and Sandy León’s still listed in the organization, which would give Atlanta three Gwinnett catchers for the second consecutive year), this is Baldwin’s job first and foremost.
Infield (6)
In: Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, Orlando Arcia, Austin Riley, Nick Allen, Luke Williams
Others on the 40-man roster: SS Nacho Alvarez Jr.
Other candidates for a spot: 2B Kobe Kato
Expected MLB signings? Possibly a higher-ceiling utility profile
Atlanta has four absolute roster locks in Olson, Riley, Albies, and Arcia.2 It’s a pretty set position group that features two potential MVP candidates in Riley and Olson, an underrated switch-hitting slugger in Ozzie Albies, and a defensive-first shortstop that has shown the ability to play at an All-Star level when everything’s going right and struggles immensely when everything’s…not.
The Braves may end up grabbing one more piece here, some sort of middle infield guy that they feel like could step in on an everyday basis if Arcia or Albies were to miss time next season. While there’s a small chance that they end up signing someone like Ha-Seong Kim that can bump Arcia to a utility role, I think you’re going into spring with a position battle at short between Arcia, Alvarez, Allen, and whoever gets signed over the winter.
Outfield (4 + 1 on IL)
In: Ronald Acuña Jr., Michael Harris II, Jarred Kelenic, Eli White, FA SIGNING
Others on the 40-man roster: Carlos D. Rodriguez
Other candidates for a spot: NONE
Expected MLB signings? Yes, a lefty-hitting veteran
This one’s been the talk of the week - the Braves, per Ken Rosenthal, are expected to pursue a lefty-hitting veteran leftfielder in free agency this offseason. With Acuña out for an indefinite amount of the early season schedule, having a veteran slugger that can pair with Kelenic to man the corners until Ronald’s back is one of the top two needs this offseason and can’t be ignored.
I have Eli White over Rodriguez for the 4th outfielder job simply because of options - White has none and needs to either make the roster or be designated for assignment after Grapefruit League play wraps, while Rodriguez has all three remaining and can be moved back and forth between Atlanta and Gwinnett at will. As this team doesn’t have a lot of other high-level depth in the minors at the moment, it makes sense that they’d prioritize organizational depth by going with White over Rodriguez.3
The real question will be what happens when Acuña returns - do they try and sneak White through waivers to stash him in Gwinnett, or would they rather DFA Williams or Allen? Someone would be exposed to waivers in this scenario, so just be ready for it.
Starters (5)
In: Chris Sale, Reynaldo López, Spencer Schwellenbach, Spencer Strider, Ian Anderson, AJ Smith-Shawver
Others on the 40-man roster: Bryce Elder, Hurston Waldrep, Allan Winans, Dylan Dodd
Other candidates for a spot: Drue Hackenberg, Lucas Braun, Zach Thompson, Darius Vines
Expected MLB signings? Yes, a veteran starter
This top three is set in stone with Sale, López, and Schwellenbach. Strider’s back in the rotation as soon as he’s activated off the IL.
But to open the season, assuming no one dramatically outperforms anyone else, the tiebreaker might come down to minor league options: Ian Anderson has none left, while AJ Smith-Shawver is already down to his last option. Bryce Elder has two remaining, while Dylan Dodd and Allan Winans both have one remaining (and they’re probably the most likely to be DFA’d if it comes to it, anyway - Darius Vines already had that happen to him last season.)
I still believe the team will go out and add at least one veteran, either via free agency or by trade, and so if that happens, Smith-Shawver’s probably the first man out. More Gwinnett development time wouldn’t hurt, although then you’re in a situation where he needs to stick on the roster in 2026 because he can’t be optioned down again.
Relievers (8)
In: Raisel Iglesias, Pierce Johnson, Aaron Bummer (L), Joe Jiménez, Dylan Lee (L), Daysbel Hernandez, Grant Holmes, Enoli Paredes, Domingo Gonzalez
Others on the 40-man roster: Rolddy Munoz, Angel Perdomo (L)
Other candidates for a spot: Drue Hackenberg, Lucas Braun, Zach Thompson, Darius Vines, Hayden Harris (L), Kolton Ingram (L), and literally almost any other pitcher who spent time in AA or AAA last season
Expected MLB signings? If one, a higher-leverage backend type or potentially a former closer to be a middle reliever.4
There’s definitely more question marks here, simply because we don’t know the org’s true feelings on some of these guys. Is Angel Perdomo going to be ready to open the season after TJ surgery in October of 2023? He didn’t pitch in official minor league games this season, so whether or not he’s ready after just Grapefruit League run is a legit question. (If he’s not, Hayden Harris and Kolton Ingram will have opportunities to earn that third lefty spot in the pen, if Atlanta even has one to open the season.)
How does the organization feel about either Domingo Gonzalez or Rolddy Munoz making the Opening Day roster? Gonzalez feels more likely, simply since he has more upper-minors experience, but the Braves may also not want to break a brand new major leaguer in on a World Series contending team. That’s who I have in their for now, but that final spot held by Gonzalez is the first up for grabs with a signing (The Enoli Paredes spot is the second).
I wouldn’t be surprised if this prediction is the furthest off on Opening Day, truthfully, as this is the most fungible position. Again, I’ve asked for this team to sign a future closer for this year, both to replace Joe Jiménez and to give them fallback options if Raisel Iglesias is either too expensive or slipping as we go into next offseason. Whether or not that guy is an already established top-tier reliever, like Tanner Scott (who would also be your third lefty) or someone to ‘rehabilitate’ like Jose Leclerc, there’s clearly a need here.
We’ll periodically update this throughout the offseason.
Yes, an Opening Day roster prediction doesn’t need to list injured players, but as they’re folks who absolutely will be on the roster when they’re healthy, I wanted to list them.
Even if Arcia ends up not being the Opening Day shortstop, his roster spot is safe as he’s a capable and versatile defender who costs only $2M.
They’re also likely to continue adding minor league free agents in the coming weeks, and we’ll add them to these projections as we update this through the winter.
This is a favorite demographic of mine, so you have a guy who can step into a save situation when the normal high-leverage arms are all unavailable. Kirby Yates was great at this in 2023, but the bullpen suffered from not having a go-to for this in 2024.