Braves Hang On to Win Wild Series Finale Versus Miami

The Atlanta Braves won the series and remain positioned to potentially catch New York at home this week

The Atlanta Braves survived a wild matchup against the Miami Marlins, claiming a 5-4 win in loanDepot Park on Sunday afternoon

Here’s what you need to know about from the contest.

Holmes got jammed up late 

Grant Holmes made his 2nd consecutive spot start in this one, replacing the IL’d Reynaldo López. And just like last time, he showed a lot to like.

Holmes allowed just two runs in four innings, allowing three hits and one walk opposite five strikeouts. His swing-and-miss stuff was working well today, with the right-hander picking up eleven of his fifteen whiffs on the slider.

(Flip side: He gave up two solo homers and the first was on that same slider, the first time an opposing hitter tagged the slider for a homer all season.)

Finishing with a 35% CSW, including all three pitches (even the fastball) being over 30%, has to make Braves fans feel good about the quality of Holmes’ “stuff” and the potential to develop him into a legit starting pitcher over the offseason.

That said, he struggled to open the fifth inning, with a walk and a Griffin Conine double putting runners on 2nd and 3rd for Miami. Manager Brian Snitker went to Dylan Lee, who was masterful, getting two strikeouts and a groundout to strand both batters and maintain the Braves lead.

The bullpen decisions continue to be questionable

The Braves asked Dylan Lee to warm up in a hurry and get them out of the Holmes-created jam in the 5th, with Lee throwing 14 high-stress pitches but getting the job done.

Then Snit went back to the well, asking Lee to come back out and give the team a second inning. Miami opened the bottom of the sixth with back-to-back homers off of Lee, tying the game back up at four each.

Both homers came off of sliders that ended up catching too much of the zone - the first one, a down and away breaker to righty Connor Norby, was a good piece of hitting to get an opposite-field homer out of it. The second slider was in the same place, ending up down and in to lefty Jesús Sanchez, and it was LAUNCHED into center.

The ask of Snit for two innings from Lee feels like it stems from the inability to trust Aaron Bummer in higher-leverage situations; the team behaves as if the only relievers they can trust with a lead are Lee, Pierce Johnson, Joe Jiménez and Raisel Iglesias. A lefty groundball specialist in Bummer is incredibly useful and needs to be used more in high-leverage moments, rather than as the fallback when no one else is available for that inning.

After Pierce Johnson was inserted for Lee to clean up the sixth inning, Bummer got the seventh inning with Atlanta once again holding a 5-4 lead. The resulting jam wasn’t on him, either, with the Braves twice misplaying bunts to load the bases after a Otto Lopez leadoff single. After Bummer got a strikeout for the first out of the inning, Snit pulled him to go with Daysbel Hernández - removing a ground ball specialist for a control-challenged flamethrower is a questionable decision, but it worked out this time¹ with a strikeout and a flyout ending the Miami threat and stranding all three runners.

Money Mike stays hot

Centerfielder Michael Harris was hot in Cincinnati, hitting four homers and going 6-16 in the series win.

He’s continued the hot streak in Miami.

After going 6-10 in the first two games, Harris went 2-4 with a RBI triple and two runs scored in this one. He’s hitting .296 with nine homers in his last 30 games and .333 with six bombs across his last 15. IF Atlanta can make the postseason, which still isn’t a guarantee, it’s easy to see how the recent upswing from the top of the order can give this offense a fighting chance to win and advance in October.

Ozzie hitting right-on-right

After the first two games of this series, the decision to return Ozzie Albies to the lineup as a right-handed hitter only and reinstalling him in the #2 hole seemed to be a mistake: Ozzie was just 1-for-10 across the first two games of this series, with that hit last night being a 72-mph bouncer off the plate that was misplayed in the infield.²

About that.

Ozzie got the scoring started on Sunday with a solo homer, taking an 0-1 sweeper to left for his first homer since returning off the IL. ³

Gio Urshela added a homer of his own in the 6th inning, finishing 3-4 and just a triple shy of a cycle, while Matt Olson went 2-3 with a RBI.

What’s next for the Atlanta Braves?

The Braves are off tomorrow before the pivotal Mets series this week at Truist Park. Atlanta’s announced their rotation for the series: Spencer Schwellenbach goes game one, with Chris Sale Wednesday and Max Fried on Thursday. The decision to not move Sale up a day to Tuesday means that he’d be on short rest for Sunday’s game 162, should Atlanta need a win in the series finale for postseason positioning, but would be available for game one of the Wild Card round.

1. A long pet peeve of mine is judging a decision based on the result. That’s not how it works; it’s either a good idea or bad idea based on the knowledge you have when you make the decision. On its face, asking Lee for a second inning and lifting the groundball specialist for a control-challenged velo daddy with the bases loaded and only one out both weren’t the right calls, even though it ultimately worked out in the end.

2. Frustratingly, Snit seemed to be expecting these sorts of struggles out of Ozzie, telling reporters on Friday that “It’s going to be an adjustment” for Albies. “I didn’t expect him to come back in here and hit three homers, really.” If you thought he needed time to adjust, why not move him down in the order?

3. For the record, I still think it was a mistake to put Ozzie in the #2 hole right away. Again, it’s based off of the facts when you made the decision, not the results, and the fact remains that Ozzie had seen 30 MLB pitches and about 10 AAA ones right-on-right when he returned.