Atlanta's pending offseason decisions are shaping up to be really interesting
The Atlanta Braves will be at an inflection point with their long-term deals this winter, but the path forward is clear
This era of the Atlanta Braves has been marked by a quest for continuity.
They haven’t always achieved it, mind you - seemingly every offseason, the team’s top free agent and several role players have departed in free agency. From first baseman Freddie Freeman after 2021 to Dansby Swanson after 2022 and Max Fried after 2024, a veteran leader has left for a larger contract somewhere else. Several role players have followed them out the door, with the absences of Travis d’Arnaud, Charlie Morton, and AJ Minter looming particularly large this offseason.
But at the same time, the Braves have inked several everyday starters to long-term deals, be it trade acquisitions (Matt Olson and Sean Murphy), homegrown stars (Austin Riley, Spencer Strider), or offseason acquisitions that had spectacular debuts in the white and navy blue (Marcell Ozuna, Charlie Morton, Reynaldo López, Chris Sale).
This offseason’s no different than those others, with several prominent contract decisions to be made. Let’s talk about it.
A pair of club options in the pitching staff
Several Braves arms have pending club options that, as of this way-too-early look, feel like they’re clearly trending one direction or another.
Veteran Chris Sale is owed only $18M on a 2026 club option with no buyout, a pittance for a recent Cy Young winner. Despite his slow start, only 1-2 with a 5.40 ERA, this option feels like a no-brainer because of scarcity.
Put simply, the Braves have Spencer Strider and Spencer Schwellenbach for expected frontline starters next season…and that’s it. Reynaldo López hasn’t shown the health to be counted on in that role, while Grant Holmes appears to be a back-to-mid-rotation starter1 and AJ Smith-Shawver has yet to take that leap.
As of now, I put the odds of Sale’s option being picked up at 95%. If he gets back to form, it’s 99.9999%
With the caveat that I don’t expect the Braves to wade into the deep end of the free agency pool for a Dylan Cease, Zac Gallen, or Framber Valdez, they’ll have the money to go out and make some sort of signing to reinforce the rotation…it just likely won’t be someone who would start anything before game three of a postseason series at best, and that’s why Sale will be back next year.
Reliever Pierce Johnson’s in the opposite situation. Signing a multi-year deal after being acquired at the 2023 deadline, he’s seemingly fallen out of favor with the coaching staff this offseason and is currently the 5th reliever, at best, in the pen.
His 2026 club option is for $7M with a buyout of only $250,000, and given both the his lack of usage this season and the low leverage of those moments he does get into a game, it feels as of now that the Braves will save the $6.75M by paying his buyout and sending him to the free agent market.
I put the odds of Johnson’s club option being picked up at 20%. The buyout cost is so low that it’s less than two months of a league minimum reliever, and they’ll spend more than that2 on José Suarez, who was DFA’d last week. The 20% there is contingent on him finding that breakout form that caused Atlanta to re-sign him in the first place, when he had an ERA under 1.00 down the stretch in 2023 after being acquired at the trade deadline.
The trio of hitter club options are all slam dunks
Very little drama here, believe it or not, to the club option decisions on the middle infielder trio of Ozzie Albies, Orlando Arcia, and David Fletcher. Let’s take them in order.
Ozzie Albies: $7M club option, $4M buyout. This is getting picked up.
To go back to the podcast’s old chestnut, two things can be true at once:
Thing 1: Ozzie Albies is not currently the player he was for the duration of this contract.
He’s just not. Entering Monday night’s series, Ozzie’s batting just .229 with a .664 OPS and 85 OPS+. His arm also continues to deteriorate, being the worst non-first-base arm in the entire sport.
Thing 2: $3M is a pittance to pay for a chance to get the old Ozzie Albies back.
Letting Ozzie walk to save the team three million dollars just isn’t worth it - that amount is low enough where it’s worth picking the option up and seeing if he can fix whatever ails him at the plate. If Atlanta opens up the designated hitter spot and you’re able to get him out of the field, that makes his option even more attractive.
Now the 2027 option, which is another $7M with no buyout, is another story…but that’s another newsletter.
I put the odds of Ozzie’s club option being picked up at 95%. $3M is a bargain for even 80% of one of his All-Star seasons, never mind the clubhouse presence that he brings as the longest-tenured member of the Braves.
Orlando Arcia: $2M club option, $1M buyout
This is another easy decision - a $1M difference between his salary and buyout is not enough for the Braves to send Orlando Arcia to free agency. Nick Allen may have supplanted him as the starter, but the Braves have spent $1M to bring in a backup infielder in the past (Luis Guillorme in 2024, the remainder owed to Nicky Lopez in 2023) and so I expect them to do the same here.
I put the odds of Arcia’s club option being picked up at 80%.
As a reminder, while his speed isn’t great, he’s played almost every position outside of centerfield and catcher during his time in the majors. At worst, he’s a light-hitting utilityman who can plug in if you have an injury, and that’s absolutely worth $1M.
The only two things that likely change this decision for Atlanta are either his defense completely craters to the point of unplayability or he becomes a problem in the clubhouse, both of which are unlikely. He’s no longer a plus defensively, but he’s cheap enough where they could try him in spring and cut him after Grapefruit League if there are better options on the roster.
David Fletcher: $8M club option, $1.5M buyout.
Can I go with 110% likely to be bought out here? 120%? This one isn’t hard at all.
The free agency decisions are…trickier
The Braves have (as of now) four prominent free agent decisions to make: Marcell Ozuna, Raisel Iglesias, Rafael Montero, and Alex Verdugo.
One of these is easy - Rafael Montero’s heading to free agency. I’m writing this perspective from the end-of-season decisions to be made, but it could be in just a few days, honestly.
The rest of these are interesting, however, and let’s take them one by one.
Closer Raisel Iglesias is the toughest decision as of now - if he’s the 2024 version of Iglesias, you lock him up before free agency even starts in the exclusive negotiation window after the World Series ends. If he’s the 2025 version, you let him walk in free agency.
We’ve got 134 games to figure out which guy he is. As of now, I lean towards him coming back, but not at the $16M salary he made this year in the final year of his deal.
Designated hitter Marcell Ozuna isn’t a tough decision as of now - you bring him back, but on a one-year deal. Give him a club option if needed to get the signature, but going multiple years on a mid-30s designated hitter that had fatigue issues down the stretch last season isn’t a great idea.
Alex Verdugo is in a similar situation to Ramón Laureano last season - playing well enough to monopolize playing time and a candidate to be brought back. The key difference between the Laureano free agency and the upcoming Verdugo free agency rests with one player: Jurickson Profar.
Seeing what Profar looks like when he comes back and how well he plays will give Atlanta some idea of how urgent it is to bring Verdugo back for 2026.
(Also worth mentioning is that Verdugo will need to keep playing down the stretch this year, simply because Profar will be ineligible for the postseason should the Braves make it.)
It’s just impossible to make this prediction right now because of the uncertainty behind Profar, but it feels like Verdugo won’t be back. It’s going to be tough to straddle the line between outplaying Profar enough where he needs to be re-signed but not outplaying him enough to get a multi-year deal from someone else.
While it’s possible that the Braves would be the ones to give Verdugo a multi-year deal in that unique situation, that’s probably impossible if Marcell Ozuna returns.
If Ozuna walks, Verdugo could be your new left fielder and Profar’s the primary DH, along with whichever catcher isn’t starting between Drake Baldwin and Sean Murphy. But if Ozuna returns and gets 160 starts at DH, it’s hard to stomach the idea of platooning Verdugo and Profar while also not having a backup centerfielder should something happen to Michael Harris.3
Thankfully, we have until November to figure this one out.
And there’s nothing wrong with that!
$1.1M owed this season, unless they can find someone to take him via trade
I guess Ronald Acuña Jr. could be your backup centerfielder, unless the team keeps Eli White in a utility role and uses him. Lot of moving parts here, obviously.
Great write up, I’m with you on about 75% of it, which for me is basically full agreement.
What’s your honest take on Profar? To me, it feels like it would be downright silly to play him anywhere outside of Rome or Gwinnett when he comes back. Verdugo looks locked in, Eli is absolutely raking (and I’m pulling for him, I’ve always had that old school baseball mindset about rewarding hard work and grit), and of course Acuña will be back eventually, though his health is a major question mark. His attitude lately has been a concern too, that Kelenic tweet was a bad look, no way around it.
I just don’t see why the Braves would shoehorn Profar into any meaningful playing time when he wouldn’t even be eligible for the postseason. Add in the PEDs issue, and while I’m not saying he can’t work his way back into good standing, that kind of redemption arc should probably start next year, not in the middle of a pennant race.
Also, if you’re really bored and since we are on the topic of outfielders, can you please explain (in the name of everything holy to the baseball gods) what exactly AA is doing bringing Rosario back? Seriously, I’m all ears if there’s even a single rational justification. Because I’ve thought about it way too long, and I can’t find even a breadcrumb. Not a crumb, not a speck, not even a faint whiff of a reason to stick him back in this lineup. At this point, it feels like nostalgia for 2021 got weaponized and no one remembered to tell reality.