Atlanta Braves Prospect Report - AFL, Week one
There are a few Braves prospects in the Arizona Fall League and several have put up noteworthy performances already
The Arizona Fall League is used in different ways by MLB teams, depending on the organization. The most common uses of the offensively-focused league by MLB clubs is as either a prospect finishing league, getting upper-level prospects ready for their MLB debuts, or as a makeshift “Last Chance U”, where minor leaguers with a looming 40-man decision or uncertain prospect status get a final chance to make their case for protection from the winter’s Rule 5 draft or inclusion in the team’s plans going forward.
Additionally, most organizations also use it as a chance for injured prospects to catch up on missed time, getting valuable at-bats that help them get closer to their original development timelines.
And for Atlanta, it’s all three.
The Braves have sent a wide variety of prospects to Arizona this year, with top position prospect Drake Baldwin being joined by corner infielder David McCabe and first baseman Drew Compton. Baldwin is clearly in finishing school - the 2022 3rd-rounder spent just over half the season in Triple-A Gwinnett (batting .298 w/ a .891 OPS) and is looking to make his MLB debut in 2025. Compton, meanwhile, is one year removed from Rule 5 but is also not a rated prospect in the organization - joining Atlanta on a UDFA deal after being passed over in the 2023 MLB Draft, he’s looking to establish a prospect pedigree at first base in an organization that doesn’t really have any depth at the position behind MLB starter Matt Olson.
(McCabe’s in the third boat - having Tommy John surgery early this year, the burly infielder got in only 35 games this season for Double-A Mississippi, batting just .137 with an OPS under .500.)
What are Atlanta’s minor leaguers up to in Arizona? We’ll tell you.
Catcher Drake Baldwin
Week 1 stats: 3G, .385/.429/.692 (5-13), 1HR, 4R, 3 RBI, 1BB to 2Ks
In the face of a loaded position in Peoria - San Diego Padres super-prospect Ethan Salas and C/1B Brendan Durfee are also on the roster - Baldwin’s stood out among the backstops for his exit velocities so far in the desert.
Here’s a 106 mph double the opposite way, this one coming off of a changeup.
And here’s a 111 mph single, again to the opposite field.
The hard contact continues a trend of Baldwin’s time in Gwinnett, where he put up a 90th percentile EV of 106.11 with a max of 111.9.
The thing I want to see Baldwin improve on in the AFL is his launch angle tightness - he’s too prone to hitting groundballs (50% rate in AAA) and being able to consistently elevate the baseball can unlock another level of production for the young slugger.
David McCabe
Week 1 stats: 1G, 1-5, 2B, R, 0BB to 2Ks
The slugger’s gotten into just one game so far in Peoria, serving as the designated hitter in the second game of the season. It wasn’t a great showing, with one of these strikeouts coming on two cutters he took and a curveball in the zone that he whiffed on (although he did double off a cutter later in the game.)
Serving as the DH, we also weren’t able to see his defense - McCabe was always stretched at third base and that’s before he had Tommy John surgery on his throwing arm. A college first baseman, Atlanta was attempting to convert the 6-3, 230 UNC-Charlotte product over to the hot corner, but the infielder’s put up 29 errors in just 309 minor league chances at third. Almost 50% of position players that have Tommy John end up converting to a less demanding position, with Philadelphia Phillies slugger Bryce Harper’s move from right field to first base being the most recent and notable example.
Drew Compton
Week 1 stats: 2G, 2-7, 2B, R, RBI, 0BB to 1K
Compton’s coming off of a season split between Single-A Augusta and High-A Rome, one where he produced well (.289 w/ .809 OPS) but was old for the level. In his two games, he picked up some hard-hit balls on fastballs but also swung through several changeups and (somehow) grounded out on a cutter above the zone, which I’m not sure I’ve ever seen before.2
Atlanta’s Pitching in Peoria
(Sure I could have listed them individually like I did the hitters, but that’s not alliterative like “Pitching in Peoria.”)
Most of Atlanta’s AFL contingent consists of pitching, with relief prospect Hayden Harris and starter Adam Maier the most prominent Braves arms in the desert this season. It’s a tough assignment - quality pitching is usually at a premium in the AFL, with the conditions and talent level favoring offensive performances.
Several of that can be seen in Atlanta’s performances - Maier allowed two runs on five hits in his two innings of work, walking two and striking out three, while Ryan Bourassa has pitched two innings across two relief outings, allowing three runs on three hits (two homers), not walking anyone and striking out four.
It’s not all bad news, however: Reliever Landon Harper has three scoreless innings of relief (all in the same game), allowing three hits and one walk but striking out six. Harris and righthander Isaac Gallegos have yet to appear in an AFL contest.
MLB Average for 90EV is 103.1. MLB catchers who averaged 106 with their 90EVs include J.T. Realmuto and Yainer Diaz, who combined for a 162-game pace of 45 homers this season.
Checking Statcast, Atlanta’s pitchers forced exactly one groundout on a cutter above the zone this season, coming when Spencer Schwellenbach got Harrison Bader of the New York Mets to groundout on September 30th.