Who would take a Golden At-Bat for the Atlanta Braves?

Rob Manfred proposed another rule change and while it's a terrible idea that should never go into practice, it's still fun to talk about

MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred has overseen quite a few rule changes in his time, significant changes that adjusted the fabric of this game: the Universal DH, the pitch clock, the “ghost runner” in extra innings, and shift restrictions, to name a few.

But he’s outdone himself with his newest proposal: The Golden At-Bat.

As explained by Jayson Stark of The Athletic, who wrote the proposal up earlier this week, a Golden At-Bat is where a team can choose to have the next at-bat be taken by any play on the roster, not the player whose spot is next in the batting order.

It’s somewhat inspired by Shohei Ohtani’s strikeout of then-teammate Mike Trout to seal a WBC win for Japan in 2023:

Manfred’s proposal, which he claimed got “a little buzz” at an owners’ meeting, was to allow each team to enact a Golden At-Bat once per game.

Ignoring the obvious ridiculousness of enacting this in a regular season game - it’s perfect for an All-Star Game, as that’s an exhibition - it’s also a fun thought experiment:

Which Atlanta Braves players from the current roster would be best suited for taking a Golden At-Bat?

In an effort to use actual numbers and not vibes, we opened Statcast search and set some ground rules:

• Late-game scenarios only. One of the suggestions Stark had in the article was to allow Shohei Ohtani to bat back-to-back to open a game, but we’re ruling that out. Not nearly as much fun. Same as obvious sacrifice situations and just choosing a speedy fourth or fifth outfielder to lay down a bunt.

  • Result: Our Statcast search is set to look at only the 7th, 8th, and 9th innings

• We’re trying to see who can move runners over. Homers aren’t as important in late-game situations (even though walkoff tanks are COOL) as getting on base and/or moving runners over, for the purposes of our exercise.

  • Result: Our Statcast search is set to look at situations when runners are in scoring position and we’re using wOBA rather than slugging

• We’re trying to see who is clutch when the game is on the line. It’s good when you can knock a runner in when it’s a five-run lead, but it’s more important to be able to do that if it’s tied.

  • Result: Our Statcast search is looking at only situations when the tying or go-ahead runner is either on base or at the plate.

• We want a representative sample with Atlanta.

  • Result: Our Statcast search is looking at the last three seasons for at-bats while the player was a member of the Braves, with a minimum of 10 PAs

(Are you an audio learner? This is the topic of today’s Braves Today podcast, available on YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or wherever else you get your podcasts.)

That should give us a pretty good idea of who on Atlanta’s roster delivers when it matters the most in what we’re going to dub “rally situations” - the team’s losing a close game late (or they’ve tied it up and are trying to secure the win).

When you look at it by wOBA, the #1 performer isn’t even with the team any longer - Dansby Swanson. The now Chicago Cubs shortstop was in 13 of these “rally” situations in our sample, all in the 2022 season, and went 5-13 with a .466 wOBA. (And before you ask if this was fluky, his Expected Weighted OBA (xwOBA) was .468, so dude was just clutch in 2022).

But the number two is currently on the roster: Michael Harris II.

“Money Mike” has been...well, money in those situations since his 2022 call-up: Going 10-26 with a .447 wOBA, second best in the sample by both actual and expected production (xwOBA of .360).

Here’s Harris advancing Marcell Ozuna to third with a two-run deficit against the amazing bullpen of the Guardians in April of this year:

And here’s Harris homering to score two in 2023 against the Mets, breaking a 5-5 tie in the 8th inning:

There’s another surprising name on these lists - Sean Murphy. If you remove the “close game” stipulation and just look at the last three innings with runners on base, his wOBA is a team-best .408. If you restore the original parameters but look at who is most likely to hit you a walk-off homer instead of just getting on base or driving someone in, it’s Marcell Ozuna putting up a .500 slug (and .570 xSLG) across 102 ABs.

Here’s the full statcast search results, if you’re curious:

Off the vibes alone, it’s Ronald Acuña Jr. for me. He’s the best power/speed combo on the roster and while he might not be back to MVP form when he returns in 2025, he’s the player that has the greatest capacity to either drive himself in (with a homer) or to get on base and put himself into scoring position.

Who would you want to take a Golden At-Bat for Atlanta?