The Atlanta Braves need to get creative in the wake of Spencer Schwellenbach's injury

80% of the Opening Day rotation is expected to miss multiple months due to injury

Just when you think things can’t get any worse, in comes your favorite team to kick you where it hurts.

The Atlanta Braves woke me up from a migraine-induced nap on Wednesday afternoon by announcing that they had placed Spencer Schwellenbach on the 15-day injured list with a “fractured elbow” apparently suffered during his Saturday start versus Philadelphia.

It goes without saying: this is Very Bad News™ for the Atlanta Braves.

In a season where they are already missing Reynaldo López (arthroscopic shoulder surgery), Chris Sale (fractured ribcage), and AJ Smith-Shawver (Tommy John surgery) from the Opening Day rotation, now Schwellenbach is out too.

How do the Braves overcome this latest injury…or can they? Let’s talk about it.

What do we know about the injury?

First, let’s talk about Schwellenbach. He addressed the media on Wednesday from Truist Park and answered some lingering questions.

He first felt something wrong in the 2nd or 3rd inning of his start on Saturday, calling it “tightness”, and then reported a bit of pain in the training room after. He then woke up even more sore and in a bit of pain on Sunday, so the team sent him out for more tests and imaging on Monday.

The injury is likely an olecranon stress fracture—the bony tip at the back of the elbow. It is a common injury in throwing sports, most specifically baseball pitchers, that is colloquially referred to as “pitcher’s elbow”. The general treatment is for rest and rehab unless the fracture is so severe that it requires surgery.

On those tests, both the flexor tendon in the forearm and the UCL are “great” and while he’s being shut down from throwing for four weeks, he absolutely expects to return this season.

Whether or not he actually does return depends on where the Braves are in the standings. There’s almost no point in trying to ramp him back up just to have him make three starts in September - the ramp-up period is where a lot of the injuries happen for pitchers.

Of note is that Schwellenbach told the media he thinks it happened from the stress of trying to increase his velocity. After averaging 95.9 mph on his fastballs in 2024, Schwellenbach’s sitting nearly a full mph faster this year at 96.8. Looking at the game-by-game chart, a lot of that increase has been recent.

He twice averaged 98.2 mph in a game this summer (May 31 and June 11), with Sunday’s discomfort leading to his lowest average fastball velocity - “only” 96.7 mph - since mid-May.

How do the Braves replace Schwellenbach?

They don’t. Just like when Chris Sale was injured, there’s no one good enough to completely replace what Schwellenbach was giving the Atlanta Braves. After a couple of rough outings in early April, Schwellenbach’s been phenomenal. In his last ten starts, he’s 6-1 with a 2.60 ERA, striking out 71 in 69.1 innings with just eleven walks and one wild pitch allowed. The team was winning those starts, too, going 8-2 across that stretch.

And honestly, filling his rotation spot isn’t the easiest proposition either. Here’s the current rotation for the Braves, in order from last night’s start:

Grant Holmes
Didier Fuentes
Bryce Elder
Spencer Strider
???? ????

Atlanta needs to figure out who starts in Schwellenbach’s place on Saturday, July 5, against the Baltimore Orioles. The 40-man options are underwhelming:

Nathan Wiles
Davis Daniel (started Tuesday for Gwinnett)
Hurston Waldrep

Wiles is the scheduled Gwinnett starter for Thursday, so let’s watch to see if he’s scratched and used in either game one or two against Baltimore.

The non-40-man options are even more underwhelming, as it’s mostly converted relievers and one struggling starter who is likely going to get moved to the bullpen permanently in Ian Anderson.

The deep stable of starting pitchers just isn’t there this season as it has been in years past.

There are some external options out there

There are two notable names that are available, and the first is someone we’ve written about before - Kyle Gibson.

Strangely, despite becoming a free agent on June 21st, Gibson still hasn’t signed with anyone to my knowledge. Either he’s intentionally delaying signing to spend time with his family or he’s not getting attention from MLB teams, but either way it’s an interesting development.

The other is Spencer Turnbull, recently released by the Toronto Blue Jays.

The 32-year-old Alabama native made three appearances (one start) for Toronto this season since finishing his build-up in the minors (he signed in early May after Max Scherzer went on the injured list). He wasn’t particularly great for the Blue Jays at the MLB level - a 7.11 ERA across his 6.1 innings with four walks and four strikeouts - but he owns a career 4.31 ERA and has shown glimpses of being an above-average starter at times in his career.

Both pitchers would make a lot of sense as veterans who can come in and give quality innings almost right away.

Given how tough trades have been to come by, the Braves probably should have been on the phone with both while last night’s game was still happening.

But there’s one more situation that needs to be discussed.

What if they just let the kids play?

In each of the last four seasons, the Braves have had a youngster unexpectedly come up all the way up to Atlanta and make their debut, several to popular acclaim.

2021: Spencer Strider
2022: Michael Harris II
2023: AJ Smith-Shawver
2024: Spencer Schwellenbach

Didier Fuentes has already joined this group for 2025, making his third career MLB start last night despite just turning 20 days before his debut.

And just like there’s no rule that says a dog can’t play basketball, there’s no rule that says you can’t call up more than one youngster.

There are some pitching prospects in Double-A Columbus that might be on the fast track list somewhat soon, and this idea feels a lot more likely than it did two or three weeks ago, honestly.

He is not the highest-rated prospect in Columbus - that’d be J.R. Ritchie - but Blake Burkhalter might be the best fit right now. A former All-American closer at nearby Auburn University, he’s experienced at pitching in large moments - he closed out games one and three of Auburn’s Super Regional victory over Oregon State to make the College World Series and then got a save against Stanford in Omaha.

If there’s any pitcher that has the mental fortitude to move from Synovus Park in Columbus to Truist Park in Atlanta, it’s the kid who mowed through the SEC in his draft year before converting to a starter for the first time in professional baseball.

There are several other options that could be called up from Columbus - Ritchie, Drue Hackenberg, and Lucas Braun are all rated prospects plying their trade for the Clingstones - but Burkhalter’s got both the resilient mentality to compete right away in the majors as well as the experience to survive in the bullpen if the team comes across other rotation options later in the calendar year.

Don’t stop here

There are other things the team can do to inject life into a flailing roster, like putting Marcell Ozuna on the injured list to allow both catchers to play every day, or trying Nacho Alvarez Jr. in the majors when he returns from the minor league injured list.

Starting pitching isn’t just a weakness right now; it’s a gaping hole. And with the trade market slow and internal options stretched thin, the Braves are out of easy fixes. Whether it’s a flurry of minor moves or one bold stroke, Atlanta needs to act fast. Because the clock’s ticking, and you can’t win many games if you don’t know who’s starting them.