Taking a Deep Dive into the Atlanta Braves Schedule the Rest of the Way

On paper the Atlanta Braves have one of the 'easiest' schedules for the remainder for the 2024 MLB season, but that may not be the best thing.

The Atlanta Braves are coming off a disappointing four-game series loss to the Philadelphia Phillies over the weekend. A series that went in favor of the Phillies three games to one could have easily gone the other way (Thursday and Sunday’s games), but let’s pocket that rant for another day.

As we dive head first into September, the rest of the season for the Atlanta Braves will most likely feel like a playoff series as they will battle to remain in the fight for the National League Wild Card. As of Monday, the Braves are only one-half game ahead of the New York Mets for the final spot with 25 games remaining.

I’m a big believer that what the team has done with all the unexpected injuries and still being in contention is impressive in itself, but I know that isn’t the expectations of this organization or the majority of this fan base. Yet, like most, I’m optimistic even when the numbers continue to fall. According to Fangraphs (as of 9/2), the Braves have a 73.7% chance to make the postseason as a Wild Card. After the series loss to the Phillies, the division chances are at a slim 3.1% and it looks like the six-year streak of winning the NL East is over for the Braves. However, getting to the dance is the most important part. In case you forgot, both the Texas Rangers and the Arizona Diamondbacks represented their respective leagues at the World Series last season after making it through the postseason as a wild card. So let’s have hope.

But, in order to get that 73.7% chance to increase and keep teams such as the New York Mets and Chicago Cubs outside the playoff picture, the Braves still need to battle in every remaining series. Let’s take a deep dive at the rest of the schedule for the Braves as well as a few other factors that may hold Atlanta out of the postseason for the first time since 2017.

Before we dive deep into each series for the rest of the season, one major factor needs to be addressed, and it’s sort of a weird one. The Atlanta Braves have 25 games remaining on the year with a combined opponent winning percentage of .483. That is considered the seventh ‘easiest’ schedule in all of baseball for the rest of the season. However, that might not be the best thing. The Atlanta Braves this season, injuries and all, have appeared to play up to the level of their opponents. They currently lead the National League with the best record against teams with a winning record (48-35). They don’t have as much success against teams with a losing record, as they are only one of three teams (Colorado Rockies and Miami Marlins) with a losing record against teams below .500. Obviously not the best company to be a part of. As of right now, the Braves will have ten games against teams with winning records and 15 against teams without. Keep this in mind when we deep dive into each series below.

Colorado Rockies, Three Games at Truist Park (September 3-5)

The Rockies come into town for three games beginning on Tuesday and getting off to a hot start is paramount.

These teams played three games at the beginning of August at Coors Field on the way to their final West Coast trip of the season and it was a nice ‘wake-up call’ for the Braves offense. Atlanta fell in two of three from the Rockies to lose the series despite putting up 25 runs across that span, with both of the losses were by only one run. Although Colorado is far from still playing meaningful games, they did well against Braves pitching.

The Braves Starters in that series:
Grant Holmes: 5IP, 6H, 5R, 5ER, 3BB, 8K, 1HR
Max Fried: 5IP, 7H, 5R, 4ER, 3BB, 9K, 1HR
Spencer Schwellenbach: 6IP, 6H, 2R, 2ER, 2BB, 7K

Braves hitters had 23 strikeouts across three games despite putting up 39 runs and 23 hits. The series was in Colorado, so numbers are often overlooked, but it is worth mentioning that Jorge Soler had a home run in each game of the series.

Heading into Tuesday, the Rockies are 51-87. They are 4-6 in their last ten games and went 2-6 in their eight standard length (three-game) series across the month of August. The way the rest of the schedule is lined up for the Braves, getting off to a hot start in September is crucial and it begins here against Colorado.

Toronto Blue Jays, Three Games at Truist Park (September 6-8)

The Blue Jays will be the second series in a row for the Braves against a team with a losing record. In fact, until Atlanta hosts the Dodgers in a few weeks, all teams on the schedule are below .500.

This will be the first (and only) time these two teams will meet this season. Toronto has not had the best season, as they have underperformed season expectations. They are currently in last place in the American League East with a 67-72 record.

Cincinnati Reds, Four Games (One Make-Up) - Three at Truist Park, One Away (September 9, 17-19)

The Braves will play their first of only six road games for the rest of the way at Great American Ballpark on September 9th when they make up a game with the Cincinnati Reds. They will finish the series with them when they come to Truist Park for a full three-game series later in the month.

The Braves lost both games played in Cincinnati this past July when the team was playing some of their worst baseball. The Reds defeated the Braves 4-1 in the opener and 9-4 in the finale (the middle game of the series is the one being made up).

The Braves Starters in that series:
Reynaldo López: 6IP, 7H, 4R, 4ER, 2BB, 5K, 1HR
Allan Winans: 2.2IP, 6H, 7R, 7ER, 2BB, 3K, 2HR

It was the ONLY start of the season for López where he allowed four or more runs in a start, so if his name is called again, you can be sure he will look for a strong rebound on the mound. This was also Winans last start of the season for the Braves.

The Reds have dealt with injuries themselves this season, mainly to their rotation. Both Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo are currently on the 15-day injured list and there is a strong possibility that they will remain there for the rest of the season. The team also traded away veteran pitcher Frankie Montas to the Milwaukee Brewers at the MLB Trade Deadline.

Washington Nationals, Two Games at Nationals Park (September 10-11)

If it feels like the Nationals have gotten the better of the Braves this season, it’s because it’s true. Atlanta is only 4-7 against Washington this season. On the plus side, they did take two of three in the last series against them.

Washington is well on its way to joining the other three teams to contend for the NL Easy (sorry, not sorry Miami). Nationals GM Mike Rizzo has done a great job flipping that roster and they’ve promoted several promising prospects down the stretch. Although they are still at least one year away, they have been a nagging team all season long.

The Braves Starters in the last series vs Washington:
Chris Sale: 7IP, 9H, 2R, 2ER, 1BB, 4K
Charlie Morton: 5.2IP, 8H, 2R, 2ER, 3BB, 3K, 1HR
Reynaldo López: 6IP, 3H, 1R, 1ER, 3BB, 7K

Los Angeles Dodgers, Four Games at Truist Park (September 13-16)

This is where it gets tough.

For the first time in this breakdown, the Braves will go up against a team with a winning record. The Dodgers offense may very well be the best in baseball, and it will be a challenge slowing them down.

The biggest concern for the Dodgers that Atlanta will have to take advantage of is their rotation. The team has lost a few big-name starters due to injury this season, and some such as Tyler Glasnow and Clayton Kershaw may not be ready to return by the time this series gets underway.

The Braves were swept by the Dodgers the last time these two faced off, in May at Dodgers Stadium. A split here would do wonders for the team.

The Braves Starters in that series:
Charlie Morton: 6IP, 5H, 2R, 2ER, 2BB, 5K, 1HR
Bryce Elder: 3.1IP, 7H, 7R, 7ER, 4BB, 4K, 3HR
Max Fried: 7IP, 4H, 4R, 4ER, 3BB, 7K, 2HR

Miami Marlins, Three Games at loanDepot Park (September 20-22)

Does the placement of this series make you nervous? Does it scream ‘trap series’ to you? It does to me.

That’s why it will be a big deal for the Braves to keep their foot on the pedal after the Dodgers series before they head back home for the final six games of the series. Although the Marlins are nowhere near postseason contention, they were a playoff team in 2023. The Braves are 7-3 against the Marlins this season but have lost their last two games.

New York Mets, Three Games at Truist Park (September 24-26)

Now that the Phillies did their job against the Braves over the weekend, this WILL BE the series of the year for the entire National League. The Mets head into Tuesday only 0.5 games behind the Braves for the final wildcard spot in the postseason.

Is it too much for me to ask for you to root for the Philadelphia Phillies? Because you might need to. The Mets currently have the fourth ‘hardest’ schedule remaining in all of baseball. The only three ahead of them (Giants, Rockies, Rays) are not in playoff contention, so the Mets have the toughest path to the postseason. That path includes seven games against the NL East leaders.

The Braves are 5-5 against the Mets this season and if they head into this series with the two battling for the final spot in the postseason, that means New York is playing some really good baseball. Some Philadelphia wins against the Mets would do wonders for Atlanta’s Wild Card standing down the stretch.

Kansas City Royals, Three Games at Truist Park (September 27-29)

Interleague to end the series? Welcome to 2024 baseball folks.

Heading into Tuesday, the Kansas City Royals are on a six-game losing skid and are at risk of falling out of playoff contention. By the time we get here, it may not matter at all for either team, or it could be the biggest series of the year. Time will only tell.

Regardless, the Royals are dealing with a serious injury to first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino that will most likely have him out for the remainder of the regular season and postseason. Missing out on the team’s RBI leader has already shown to be a major impact on the offense, and even an MVP-caliber season by Bobby Witt Jr. in the American League might not be enough for the team to hold on.

Strap in, It’s going to get wild.

You may have noticed Truist Park appearing more than you anticipated for the rest of the season. Of the 25 games remaining, only SIX will be played away from Atlanta. The Braves have a 36-28 record at home (as of 9/3).

We will update this preview with the most up-to-date statistics as we get closer to each series and as the playoff picture becomes more clear.