News roundup: The Braves aren't beating the "Winter of Austerity" allegations
Atlanta's been more aggressive than most at adding players on non-guaranteed MLB deals so far this offseason
Something that’s begun to make the rounds on social media (and I think I’m slightly responsible for it) is the idea that the Braves are throttling back in free agency this winter to reset the CBT. Atlanta exceeded the first luxury tax threshold in each of the last two seasons; a third consecutive year would require all overages to be paid at a 50% rate, as compared to just 20% for a first-time overage and 30% for a second consecutive season.
(We broke down the possibility of that happening in a podcast on November 14th, if you want more in-depth on what the Braves would do and how it might work.)
Since then, the team’s added several players on non-guaranteed MLB deals, an interesting arrangement that gives the player a 40-man roster spot now but only guarantees their salary if they make the Opening Day roster. They did this with outfielder Carlos D. Rodriguez last week, and again this week with RHP Connor Gillispie, formerly of the Guardians. They also signed infielder José Devers to a minor league deal and invited him to spring training.
Who is Connor Gillipsie?
A 2019 draftee of the Baltimore Orioles (9th round, VCU), he was taken by the Guardians in the minor league phase of last year’s Rule 5 draft and spent most of the season in AAA Columbus.
He split his time between starting and relief with the Clippers, going 5-7 with a 4.05 ERA in 27 appearances (15 starts). Pitching 113.1 innings, he struck out 119 (9.5 K/9), walked 48 (3.8 BB/9), and allowed 22 homers (1.7 HR/9).
He was also selected to the major league roster twice, pitching three games in relief with four hits and two runs allowed in eight innings. The ratios narrowed in the bigs, with five walks (5.6 BB/9) and eight strikeouts (9.0 K/9) in those eight innings.
At the Rule 5 protection deadline, Cleveland added four players and DFA’d Gillispie to make space, being non-tendered rather than exposed to waivers. Similar to Carlos Rodriguez, I’m assuming Atlanta went the non-guaranteed MLB deal route to secure his services over other offers he was mulling. The Braves typically have available 40-man spots at this point in the offseason, an advantage over other clubs.
I’ll admit, nothing in the MiLB pitch mix or profile immediately stands out to me as an obvious area to improve. He throws five pitches and none of them stand out to me as particularly good or bad.
Maybe the plan is just to see if he can improve his velo by working in relief, along with maybe potentially tweaking the sequencing and some of the pitch shapes? He’s a typical back-end of your 40-man roster type based on what I’ve seen so far (without having watched any film) and his likely impact in Atlanta is as a bulk reliever. This year as a starter, he had a 4.68 ERA while his bullpen work came in as a 2.63.
Who is José Devers?
MLB Trade Rumors also confirmed a report that the Braves signed infielder José Devers to a minor league deal and are inviting him to spring training.
The cousin of Red Sox slugger Rafael Devers, José was originally signed as an IFA by the Yankees and was traded to Miami in the Giancarlo Stanton deal way back in the yesteryear of 2017. He was a top prospect for Miami for four consecutive years, after getting 21 MLB games in 2021, he spent multiple years in injury limbo after a torn labrum in his throwing shoulder.
2024 was the only AAA time of his career to date, where he went .239 with three homers and three stolen bases for Jacksonville in 54 games.
There’s no risk here - a former top prospect who is a strong defender but lost time to injury, Atlanta’s kicking the tires to see if he can contribute anything at the MLB level. He’s a strong defender up the middle who has played all over the infield, so if he’s playable at the MLB level, you have a youngster (he turns 25 next week) with an option year and five years of team control left. If he doesn’t make the roster, he gives Gwinnett another option at a position that is lacking in quality upper minors options.
What does this all mean?
Jut to clarify, I think both of these deals are entirely reasonable and justifiable from the front office.
But when you factor in everything else they’ve done - non-tendering Laureano, declining the d’Arnaud option, moving Soler in a salary dump, etc. - I think it’s just another data point on the scale of “resetting the CBT” versus “spending to last year’s level”. I still don’t know what the overall percentages of both options should be, but I can tell you that there’s legitimate reasons to reset the CBT from time to time and even the Dodgers did that somewhat recently (They were under from 2018-2020, and they looked to be prepared to do it again in 2023 until Trevor Bauer’s suspension was changed on appeal).
I do think that overreacting to last year’s offensive issues and injury troubles wouldn’t be prudent. This is a World Series-caliber core that’s together for a few more years, with Harris, Olson, Riley, etc all signed long-term. It’s also realistic, albeit unpopular, to argue that with the uncertainty behind your two best players in Spencer Strider and Ronald Acuña Jr. as they return from significant injury, this is probably the best year to hedge your bets and reset the CBT.
Diverging offseason plans
Yesterday’s Braves Today podcast was about two different offseasons: One with normal spending (~$60M) and one of just $20M while trying to stay under the CBT.
I think it came out really well and I’d like your thoughts.
Here’s each scenario (this is a sample offseason - I wasn’t saying you had to sign these guys, just that these are the types of signings you’d see under each scenario)
$60M Offseason
SP: Nathan Eovaldi
RP: A.J. Minter
Swingman: Spencer Turnbull
OF: Max Kepler or Michael Conforto
SS: Ha-Seong Kim or Hyeseong Kim
$20M Offseason
SP: Charlie Morton
RP: Hoby Milner
Swingman: Michael Soroka
OF: David Peralta
SS: Paul DeJong