Jorge Soler Must Step Up for the Braves Down the Stretch
If the Atlanta Braves want to run it back just like 2021, they will need more from their former World Series MVP
The Atlanta Braves have found themselves in a battle for the final month of the regular season.
After preseason expectations had the team projected as one of the best teams in baseball, with most predicting close to a 100-win season, the Braves are currently on pace for an 88-win campaign. The same amount of wins they had in the 2021 regular season. A season that turned into a magical run for the franchise’s first World Series win since 1995.
After a series of major injuries early in the season to Spencer Strider and Ronald Acuña Jr. (to name a few), the team was forced to add replacements at the MLB Trade Deadline to keep up with the rest of the National League.
Since coming back to the Braves at the end of July, Soler has been used in the leadoff role and other sports toward the top of the batter order. However, other than a few games he has not seen much success. If the team wants to be successful down the stretch and fight for one of the final three spots in the postseason, they must have better production from their former 2021 World Series MVP.
In order to discuss how Soler can improve at the plate (and beyond) for the Braves we have to take a look at how he has performed this season. Let’s dive in.
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FULL HITTING BREAKDOWN
This season has been all about ‘running it back’ after bringing back some of the team’s World Series players (Soler included) to make up for the Acuña injury, so it makes sense to see how these numbers compare to the historic postseason run of 2021.
A few things stick out immediately when diving into Soler’s advanced metrics. When comparing this season to his 2021 campaign, Soler is mostly seeing lower numbers across the board, and based on how his ‘normal’ numbers you see on a television broadcast (batting average, on-base percentage, and so on) makes total sense. However, there are some good things we are seeing from Soler this season that need to continue in order to regain some of the earlier success he’s had in his career.
Heading into Thursday, Soler is currently hitting .232/.330/.460 across 126 games this season. This accounts for both his time spent with the San Francisco Giants and the Braves. Soler has only participated in 33 games for Atlanta this season where he has gone .204/.333/.398
Soler’s contact has not been as clean as it was in 2021. His barrel percentage is down a full percent from 12.2 to 11.1%.
To be considered a barrel, a batted ball requires an exit velocity of at least 98 mph. At that speed, balls struck with a launch angle between 26-30 degrees always garner Barreled classification. For every mph over 98, the range of launch angles expands. (Per MLB.com)
This explains why his average exit velocity has decreased by a full mph as well over that span. You would think that as you get older, you become slower. And for the most part in this game (according to the numbers) you do. We have to remember that Soler is 32 this season, and many metrics have been reported in the past to show a major decline after the age of 30 and 31 seasons. We are starting to see it with him; not everywhere, however, and sometimes not in places you would expect.
Like bat speed.
According to Tom Tango, MLBAM Senior Data Architect, the statcast aging curve for bat speed shows a big decline at, and after age 31.
A new metric released to the public by Baseball Savant this season shows the average bat speed of all MLB players and Soler has yet to see this pattern hit his game. The 32-year-old is defying the odds and sits in the 92nd percentile in bat speed across the league with a 75.3 mph average. It is actually the 16th fastest in all of baseball and the fastest swing speed among the current Braves roster this season.
Strikeout and Walk Rates
Soler has struck out more this season as he did in 2021. His 25.4% strikeout rate is almost two percent higher than it was during that World Series year. If you just count his numbers with the Braves since being reacquired at the trade deadline (obviously smaller sample size) the number increases more to 27% at the plate. For someone who has hit in the top third of the lineup for the majority of his time back with the Braves, handing over an at-bat every four plate appearances is not ideal.
On the other hand, Soler has shown some impressive improvement with his walks this season and is a big reason why he has given the Braves any kind of production over this past month and a half span. This year, he is in the top 7% in all of baseball with a 12.2% walk rate. This is coming even though he possesses a higher Chase Rate (27.6%) than his career average (25.4%). It has evolved into an important asset of his game, and since returning to Atlanta, he nearly has just as many walks (19) as hits (21) at the plate.
Gotta be more than the fastball.
The higher Chase % might be an indicator of how he is approaching different pitch types this season compared to years past. When diving into his Run Values by Pitch Type, Soler is really only seeing success this season off four-seam fastballs. He has recorded a run value of 13 and a .618 slugging percentage when throwing the heat. This is his second-best run value on a pitch in his entire career, only being outdone by his approach to that same four-seamer in 2019 where he recorded an insane 29-run value at the plate.
The reason I bring this up is because other than the fastball, Soler is not truly seeing any success anywhere else against any other pitch this season. He has only two other pitches with a positive run value, changeups (RV +2) and the curveball (RV +1), but not enough to make a huge impact, especially from a guy with known power and one who sits in the top third of the Braves lineup.
In 2021, Soler found solid value against the cutter and the slider (as well as the obviously four-seamer). His more balanced approach against different pitch types pushed pitchers to throw 170 more fastballs than what he has currently seen in 2024. It may be too late for a big adjustment this far into the season, but it’s worth noting that he has had success with offspeed pitches in the past, it’s just not translating well at the plate this year.
All of these metrics we discussed above mostly discuss how Soler isn’t the same player he was a few seasons ago, and as we mentioned above with age curves, that is usually the trend when veteran players reach a certain age. However, even if you don’t believe the Braves can find a way to make it into the postseason in 2024, it is nowhere near the right time to give up on Jorge Soler.
For Atlanta and Soler, it doesn’t stop in 2024.
Braves general manager Alex Anthopoulos didn’t just make a trade for Jorge Soler to be a part of Atlanta for just 2024, he is back for the foreseeable future. This past offseason, Soler signed a 3-year, $42M contract that came with him to the Braves. So getting him back on track is important for the imminent success (and quite frankly Atlanta’s playoff chances in 2024), but it will also have some effect on his performance moving forward.
Soler isn’t the best defensive outfielder - one of the worst, actually, as he has a -6 OAA on the season. Even with the return of Ronald Acuña Jr. next season, and the assumption that Marcell Ozuna (who is having an MVP-like season) will have his club option picked up, the only option is to stick Soler in a corner outfield spot. We won’t dive too much into his defensive woes in this piece, but when looking at the 2024 Braves team as a whole, they are in WAY better shape in the outfield in comparison to the 2021 run.
Michael Harris II, Jarred Kelenic, and Ramon Laureano along with Soler give Braves manager some versatility with the lineup on an everyday basis, something he didn’t have the privilege of having last time Acuña was out of the season. I bring this up because it sometimes means Soler is left out of the lineup and not playing every day. If the team wants him to get out of the slumps he is in, that can’t happen.
As the season grows closer to its end, Soler must play every day to get in a rhythm. His late surge or at least finding ways to get on base helps this case, but getting Soler right is important for this team if they want to make a deep run in October (assuming they can hold on and clinch a wildcard spot).
The Braves have yet to find a win against the Los Angeles Dodgers this season. With them heading into Truist Park for a four-game series this weekend with a ton of question marks with the majority of their starting rotation, the power from Soler could really come in handy. I expect to see him in the lineup every day.
If this upcoming series seems like the biggest one of the season, that’s because it is. Well, until the next big series.
If Soler can find success against one of the best teams in baseball in the Los Angeles Dodgers, who are coming to Truist Park for four games this weekend, it could be a huge momentum boost for the outfielder into the ‘easier’ part of the final few matchups of the season. And if all goes right, he will be completely locked in for the New York Mets in the second to last series of the season.
This series could very well determine the final wildcard spot in the National League when it’s all said and done.
We could be heading towards some sort of light at the end of the tunnel when it comes to the slumping ways of Jorge Soler since arriving back with Atlanta. Over the past two games with the Washington Nationals, the Braves outfielder stepped up his performance at the plate. He went 3 for 7 with two walks, two extra-base hits and two RBI.
Small sample size yes, but there is only a small amount of games left in the 2024 regular season (16 to be exact). So, if the Braves want to get through this tough stretch of games (9th toughest schedule remaining in the National League) they will need all hands firing on all cylinders if they want to play baseball in October. Jorge Soler, a former World Series MVP for the Braves. A player who was brought back to try and salvage this injury-ridden season MUST play a huge part in that success for it to become a reality.