Braves Push to Early Lead, Collapse Late as Reds Take Series Opener
The Atlanta Braves continue to fall farther behind in the NL Wild Card race by dropping yet another winnable matchup on Tuesday night.
The Atlanta Braves got an early 5-1 lead in Great American Ball Park against the Cincinnati Reds, but couldn’t hold them back as Cincy rallied to a 6-5 victory on Tuesday night.
Here’s what you need to know about from the contest.
Holmes excelled in the spot start
Back when the team was attempting to space out the starters by giving them extra rest days, Grant Holmes made four starts and looked rather impressive for a 28-year-old rookie. Getting the ball four times, he went 1-0 with 26 strikeouts in 21.2 innings prior to tonight.
This outing was more of the same, with Holmes going four full innings with two runs allowed on five hits, walking two and striking out two each. Despite manager Brian Snitker initially stating pregame that Holmes would have about 60 pitches to work with, the righthander threw 78 pitches (50 strikes), mostly staying out of trouble until his final inning.
There’s a conversation that needs to be had this offseason about moving Holmes back into a starting role (now that he has a slider); thrown into the rotation with very little notice due to injuries and underperformance earlier this year, Holmes showed he has the chops and core fundamentals of a mid-rotation starter with some more experience and polish. With potential offseason departures of both Max Fried (free agency) and Charlie Morton (free agency/retirement), having another starting-caliber pitching option is valuable depth that Atlanta sorely needs.
The bats came to play
The Braves haven’t had a lot of offensive success over the past few days, barely scoring in the back half of their series split with the Los Angeles Dodgers - after putting up sixteen runs in the first two games, both wins, they scored just two combined across the final two games, dropping both to LA for the most disappointing series split against a 1st-place team you can imagine.
But not tonight.
Atlanta hit two first-inning homers off of Reds starter Brandon Williamson, going up 3-0 in the first frame in shades of their dynamic 2023 season. Jorge Soler would add another homer in the 4th inning off of reliever Carson Spiers, one of several Cincinnati bullpen arms that were forced to enter the game after Williamson left with an elbow injury in the 2nd inning.
All wasn’t copacetic for the Braves offense despite the early scoring, however - the Braves went just 2-for-9 with RISP, stranding 14 runners (including the game-tying run on 2nd in the 9th). Every inning except for the 3rd featured a Braves runner left on base.
This lineup has struggled in 2024 in those clutch situations, just 21st in OPS (.728) entering tonight’s action. It’s not just injuries, either, with reigning NL MVP Ronald Acuña Jr. putting up a .676 and Austin Riley at just .716 prior to going down with their injuries. Only Marcell Ozuna (.924) and Matt Olson (.878) entered tonight’s game with an OPS over .800 with runners in scoring position (minimum 20 ABs)
The bullpen faltered late
Atlanta’s had one of the best pitching staffs, from starters to bullpen, this season. The back end of the bullpen has been superb, as well, with Raisel Iglesias establishing himself as one of the best closers in baseball over the summer.
But Pierce Johnson’s on the struggle bus right now.
Atlanta’s resident curveball specialist entered tonight in a bit of a slump. In his first 45 appearances, spanning 44.2 innings, he allowed only two home runs and had a 3.22 ERA.
But in the last eight appearances spanning 7.2 innings, including tonight’s seventh inning, he’s allowed three homers and five total earned runs. It’s pushed his season ERA up to 3.61 in just these eight games.
It’s eerily reminiscent of Will Smith’s struggles down the stretch in 2021 - he allowed just five homers in his first 44.2 innings before allowing four homers and seven earned runs in a 7.1 inning stretch late in the season. As we all know, he was flawless in the postseason, pitching eleven scoreless innings and going 2-0 with six saves as the Braves won the 2021 World Series.
Can’t win the World Series if you’re not in the postseason
Breaking, I know.
With this loss, Atlanta is now two games behind the New York Mets in the NL Wild Card standings thanks to New York’s 10-1 victory over the Washington Nationals on Tuesday night. The Braves actually had better chances on FanGraphs of making the postseason (60.4%) than New York did (56.2%) entering tonight, but I’d be surprised if that was still above 50% for Atlanta when we all wake up tomorrow morning.
What’s next for the Atlanta Braves?
Atlanta’s looking to end this three-game losing streak with Spencer Schwellenbach (6-7, 3.73) on the mound opposite trade acquisition Jakob Junis (4-0, 2.73) on Wednesday. First pitch is scheduled from Cincy’s Great American Ball Park at 6:40 PM ET.