Braves Draft Preview: Which Direction Does Atlanta Go on Day One?

Atlanta’s past draft strategy leans heavily toward college arms — but with looming lineup holes and intriguing bats on the board, could 2025 break the mold?

I’m excited to see what new prospects the Atlanta Braves add to the organization next week.

I usually have a good sense of who the Braves might target in the draft. This year? Not so much. Yes, the trend is clear - college arms early, bats late - but 2024's class leans heavily in the other direction as far as strengths. So will Atlanta pivot, or dig in deeper?

To break down the specifics here: the Braves have a very clear preference for college arms early, supplementing with a position player or two midway through the slotted portion of the draft before loading up on bats late.

But this draft’s different from most, with hitters being the strongest demographic in almost every regard. The prep class is great and while the very top end of the draft isn’t as strong as last year’s with college hitters, it’s particularly deep with quality bats.

Do the Braves go outside of type and take advantage of the draft’s strengths? Or do they double down and get even stronger in their stable of arms while everyone else is scrambling for hitters? Let’s talk about it.

The key here is signability

In a year where there’s no consensus #1 overall player and plenty of talent all clustered together, ‘signability’, or how much money a player is going to require to sign, is key. I’ve been talking to several people around the league and with the uncertainty around college baseball and available playing time, there is a lot of belief that this is the year to attempt to get several prep talents to forego their college commitments and sign with MLB.

With the transfer portal giving college coaches access to established college performers, playing time for freshmen is harder to come by than ever before. With college coaches increasingly focused on winning now over developing for the future, it’s harder than ever for a talented prep talent to crack into the lineup or rotation early…which leaves them vulnerable to being replaced when their team attempts to reload after their freshman year through the portal, and so on.

There’s a lot of belief out there right now that rather than sitting for a season, transferring down a level to play, and then having one less season of tape and data to try and get drafted at any sort of meaningful bonus amount by MLB teams, that several prep talents would take $400-700k to sign with MLB and get started with their minor league development.

This dovetails well with what Atlanta likes to do.

Atlanta likes to try and save money with their first round selection, either by paying the player less than slot or taking them later than initially projected, saving some of that allocated bonus to buy a player or two later in day one. There’s a good chance the team tries that again this year, so that they can get multiple high talents with their later picks.

Last year’s first-round pick, Cam Caminiti, was the first prep pitcher off the board yet still signed for late 20s slot value instead of the overslot, mid-teens draft position bonus he was projected to get. Atlanta used the savings from Caminiti and two other college pitchers, Carter Holton and Herick Hernandez, to buy out two preps on day two in Nick Montgomery and Ethan Bagwell. With their remaining money from some aggressive day two senior signs, they threw an extra $190k over slot value at Eric Hartman in the 20th round.

2023 was similar. The $270k savings on Hurston Waldrep in the first, as well as money saved on Sabin Ceballs, helped pay for two overslot preps, Garrett Baumann and Isaiah Drake, as well as a modest bump for Lucas Braun out of Cal State Northridge. Drue Hackenberg required a large overslot deal to sign, on account of being a draft-eligible sophomore, so more aggressive senior signs late on day two were made to cover for his additional money.

Believe it or not, 2022 followed a similar pattern, but even more extreme. Owen Murphy was underslot by $850k and Blake Burkhalter took $210k less than slot, freeing up some funds for Nacho Alvarez, Seth Keller, and JR Ritchie to take larger deals. The team went large with a $1.185M overslot deal for Adam Maier in the seventh, requiring them to essentially punt the remainder of the draft to save the money to sign their picks. They did spend some extra late on Cedric De Grandpre in the 13th round, a JuCo that was committed to Arizona State, but otherwise saved money the rest of the draft.

See the pattern? Let’s run through a few possible Day One scenarios, depending on whether Atlanta opens with a bat or an arm - and whether they dip into the deep shortstop class early.

We’ll be using the Prospects Live MLB Draft Simulator here, set to a nice balance between “chalk” and “chaos” and making selections through the entirety of Day 1.

Scenario #1: A big bat falls and we double down

This one was wild. Auburn outfielder/catcher Ike Irish, seen as one of the top available college hitters, fell to #22 and we jumped all over it. He’s a bat-first catcher with a big arm that’s a bit wild at times, but his offensive prowess and ability to play a capable, if unspectacular, right field makes up for any deficiencies behind the plate and gives Atlanta multiple development options.

I severely doubt Irish falls that far - I’ve talked to folks in the know that tell me his floor is likely sixteen and he’ll likely be a top ten pick, but if he’s not there, another premiere college bat like Texas A&M OF Jace LaViolette, Clemson OF Cam Cannarella, or even Coastal Carolina C Caden Bodine could be the pick here. SS Marek Houston of Wake Forest would be fun and a slam dunk pick, but I feel like Atlanta’s still a bit burned on Wake products after the failed pitcher selections of a few years ago.

After lucking into Irish, I doubled down on projectable prep middle infielders with twp prep shortstops, Nicky Becker out of Don Bosco Prep at #60 and Coy James out of Davie County at #96 to wrap day one.

Becker’s got the bloodlines, with a father who played for Cleveland and a brother who has been a key part of Virginia’s offense for two seasons now. He’s 6-3, 180 and quite projectable from a power perspective, but with the requisite athleticism and arm strength to stick at shortstop. The first impression, on the high end, is Corey Seager to me.

James, like Irish, has multiple development paths here. He’s primarily a shortstop, but has spent time in centerfield where his athleticism and speed has allowed him to shine. He’s an aggressive hitter who needs to work on consistent contact and swing decisions, but could take multiple different directions with his offense depending on how his power develops.

This is what I think a majority of the fanbase wants from this draft - a fast-moving collegiate hitter with several prep shortstop options. Let’s take a different direction with this next one.

Scenario #2: Doubling down on what they do best

As I alluded to above, there’s a scenario where Atlanta uses everyone else’s obsession/single-minded focus on the prep bats in this class to double and triple down on pitching, grabbing some interesting college arms on day one.

Facing a run on bats early and only three college arms off the board, we grabbed one of the biggest college arms in righty Gage Wood out of Arkansas. He threw just the third no-hitter in College World Series history last month and is a bulldog that pounds the zone. Hitting a 67% strike rate last year with just eight walks, Wood’s using an outlier 96 mph fastball that can come close to touching triple digits to anchor an arsenal that Atlanta can improve. The team excels at improving the sliders of their prospects, with Wood’s being behind both the heater and a power curveball that is already close to a plus pitch.

We then doubled down with lefty Cade Obermuller out of Iowa, who uses a fastball/sweeper combo from a Chris Sale-like low arm slot to great effect. While he needs a consistent third pitch - his changeup is pretty unimpressive - who better to teach him a slider from that arm slot than Sale himself?

We polished off this pitching deep dive with righty Cam Leiter out of Florida State, a fastball/slider/curveball demon that’s recovering from labrum surgery that cut his season short after just seven appearances. Prior to going down to fix the shoulder impingement, Leiter’s velo was sitting in the high 90s, touching 99 with regularity, and he unveiled an improved changeup that fuels dreams of a full-fledged four-pitch arsenal where everything’s at least above-average, if not plus.

Scenario #3: Grab a big arm early and then pivot to bats

This one feels like a nice compromise between the two extremes above and a line I could see Atlanta legitimately walking. With several of the most promising prep shortstops already off the board, like Daniel Pierce (#14) and Steele Hall (#21) as well as Marek Houston already selected (by Arizona, not Houston), we again grabbed Wood, a pitcher Atlanta’s been linked to during this process, and then pivoted into the class’s strength, prep bats.

Nicky Becker was available yet again at #60 (and I have no issues making that selection), but for the sake of variety, I went with TCU commit Lucas Franco. A shortstop, he’s considered a near-lock to stay on the left side of the infield with a beautiful lefty swing and a mature approach at the plate. He’s dealt with some whiffs recently, but not enough to worry most evaluators.

I wrapped this draft with Mason Pike, a SS/RHP out of Puyallup, Washington. He’s one of the top two-way players in the draft and has absurd athleticism, something that Atlanta has prioritized in previous picks (especially from their pitchers). He’s committed to Oregon State, but the Braves could promise to let him continue doing both early in his professional career until he picks a likely development path.

What to Watch for on Draft Day

The Braves are once again poised to game the system: underslot a first-rounder, redirect savings to high-upside prep talent, and target traits they’ve developed well — athleticism, pitchability, and defensive versatility.

Whether they stick to that script or zig while the league zags will depend on who falls and what deals can be made. But with a deep crop of bats and shortstops on the board, don’t be surprised if Day One ends with a few un-Braves-like surprises.